{ "ticker": { "uuid": "6729058d-ab81-4922-99e7-25f214e47329", "symbol": "002678", "name": "Guangzhou Pearl River Piano Group Co.,Ltd", "exchange": "SHZ", "country": "CN", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "399001.SZ", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4a", "phase_label": "Stage 4A \u00b7 Breakdown", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Early contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -62.927, "architecture_energy": 53.929, "architecture_maturity": 24.887, "architecture_confidence": 90.784, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 18.66, "rotation_up": 18.48, "upward_expansion": 8.55, "deceleration": 52.81, "rotation_down": 61.41, "downward_expansion": 81.88 }, "activity_lines": [ 4.262, 4.350909, 4.899238, 5.119269 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Stable", "price_acceptance": -0.666667 }, "latest_close": 4.47, "trend_reference": 5.326, "distance_from_trend": -0.160721, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 4.855568, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.079407, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -16.301926, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.15019, "excess_performance": -0.15759, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.160721, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.028161, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.079407, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.352931, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.163019, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.15473, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.15019, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.481478, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 35926374, "relative_activity": 0.534791, "balance": 0.481478, "dry_up": 0.733008, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.122354, "annualized_volatility": 0.56323, "from_high_reference": -0.360515, "from_low_reference": 0.201613 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 5.326, "fair_value_reference": 4.855568, "structural_low": 3.72, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 25, "median_return": -0.001739, "positive_rate": 0.48, "directional_follow_through": 0.52, "median_excess_return": 0.00732, "regime_survival": 0.72, "best_return": 0.371758, "worst_return": -0.152225, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 9, "median_return": 0.035907, "positive_rate": 0.666667, "directional_follow_through": 0.333333, "median_excess_return": 0.016047, "regime_survival": 0.555556, "best_return": 0.363889, "worst_return": -0.187359, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": 0.074879, "positive_rate": 0.666667, "directional_follow_through": 0.333333, "median_excess_return": 0.076448, "regime_survival": 0.333333, "best_return": 0.561927, "worst_return": -0.15653, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full 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"modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -75.312888, "energy": 86.810993, "activity_lines": [ 4.112, 4.514182, 5.068762, 5.243849 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 4.34, "volume": 42639837, "typical_volume": 68700993.3, "trend": 5.354667, "fair_value": 4.863757, "relative_strength": -14.959713, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -65.964358, "energy": 76.169833, "activity_lines": [ 4.167333, 4.404, 4.975571, 5.176344 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 4.47, "volume": 35926374, "typical_volume": 67178394.05, "trend": 5.326, "fair_value": 4.855568, "relative_strength": -16.301926, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -62.926595, "energy": 53.928917, "activity_lines": [ 4.262, 4.350909, 4.899238, 5.119269 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }