{ "ticker": { "uuid": "67322e79-452c-417c-a725-aaf48d3abf2c", "symbol": "002478", "name": "Jiangsu Changbao Steeltube Co.,Ltd", "exchange": "SHZ", "country": "CN", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "399001.SZ", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Early contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -66.185, "architecture_energy": 69.704, "architecture_maturity": 59.0, "architecture_confidence": 96, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 7.19, "rotation_up": 29.79, "upward_expansion": 13.92, "deceleration": 46.06, "rotation_down": 54.92, "downward_expansion": 87.25 }, "activity_lines": [ 6.114, 6.188687, 6.890887, 7.821836 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.666667 }, "latest_close": 6.32, "trend_reference": 8.787758, "distance_from_trend": -0.280818, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 6.124532, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.031916, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -22.35654, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.360971, "excess_performance": -0.36837, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.280818, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.058326, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.031916, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.371098, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.223565, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.163377, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.360971, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.401935, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 68437724, "relative_activity": 0.600245, "balance": 0.401935, "dry_up": 0.804213, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.078352, "annualized_volatility": 0.608394, "from_high_reference": -0.54434, "from_low_reference": 0.172542 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 8.787758, "fair_value_reference": 6.124532, "structural_low": 5.53, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 13, "median_return": 0.005386, "positive_rate": 0.538462, "directional_follow_through": 0.384615, "median_excess_return": 0.044779, "regime_survival": 0.692308, "best_return": 0.224484, "worst_return": -0.1125, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": 0.127737, "positive_rate": 0.8, "directional_follow_through": 0.2, "median_excess_return": 0.049604, "regime_survival": 0.2, "best_return": 0.353857, "worst_return": -0.066439, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": 0.067405, "positive_rate": 1.0, "directional_follow_through": 0.0, "median_excess_return": 0.155322, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.084179, "worst_return": 0.036585, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 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"typical_volume": 131714531.4, "trend": 8.955424, "fair_value": 6.132751, "relative_strength": -24.219177, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -70.381738, "energy": 87.250726, "activity_lines": [ 5.982667, 6.268622, 7.257151, 8.163439 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 6.2, "volume": 85352230, "typical_volume": 120902932.2, "trend": 8.859424, "fair_value": 6.127554, "relative_strength": -19.890869, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -68.031871, "energy": 85.953096, "activity_lines": [ 6.027333, 6.205352, 7.054614, 7.985669 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 6.32, "volume": 68437724, "typical_volume": 114016405.9, "trend": 8.787758, "fair_value": 6.124532, "relative_strength": -22.35654, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -66.185143, "energy": 69.70399, "activity_lines": [ 6.114, 6.188687, 6.890887, 7.821836 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }