{ "ticker": { "uuid": "67345f95-ee53-4f9a-9f88-75a018f726cd", "symbol": "NAXS", "name": "NAXS AB (publ)", "exchange": "STO", "country": "SE", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^OMX", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4a", "phase_label": "Stage 4A \u00b7 Breakdown", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 74.555, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Early contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -74.056, "architecture_energy": 72.097, "architecture_maturity": 9.091, "architecture_confidence": 81.253, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 24.79, "rotation_up": 8.89, "upward_expansion": 14.77, "deceleration": 37.22, "rotation_down": 79.6, "downward_expansion": 92.77 }, "activity_lines": [ 34.48, 35.183637, 35.757619, 35.889364 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -1.0 }, "latest_close": 33.799999, "trend_reference": 36.097362, "distance_from_trend": -0.063644, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 41.506415, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.185668, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -20.806123, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.088053, "excess_performance": -0.149547, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.063644, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.001732, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.185668, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.036787, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.208061, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.041913, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.088053, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.25528, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 29406, "relative_activity": 1.865745, "balance": 0.25528, "dry_up": 1.273936, "accumulation_observations": 0, "distribution_observations": 3 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.043013, "annualized_volatility": 0.178814, "from_high_reference": -0.339122, "from_low_reference": 0.024242 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 36.097362, "fair_value_reference": 41.506415, "structural_low": 33.0, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 18, "median_return": 0.007335, "positive_rate": 0.555556, "directional_follow_through": 0.444444, "median_excess_return": -0.00807, "regime_survival": 0.777778, "best_return": 0.086726, "worst_return": -0.111864, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": 0.02926, "positive_rate": 0.714286, "directional_follow_through": 0.285714, "median_excess_return": -0.075808, "regime_survival": 0.571429, "best_return": 0.098425, "worst_return": -0.121107, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": 0.052826, "positive_rate": 0.75, "directional_follow_through": 0.25, "median_excess_return": -0.054462, "regime_survival": 0.25, "best_return": 0.08745, "worst_return": -0.185897, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": 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36.16039 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 34.5, "volume": 28919, "typical_volume": 16480.65, "trend": 36.215626, "fair_value": 41.580615, "relative_strength": -18.210466, "stage": 1, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -67.941567, "energy": 63.678561, "activity_lines": [ 34.973334, 35.596364, 35.976191, 36.045211 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 33.799999, "volume": 29406, "typical_volume": 15761.0, "trend": 36.097362, "fair_value": 41.506415, "relative_strength": -20.806123, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -74.055781, "energy": 72.097014, "activity_lines": [ 34.48, 35.183637, 35.757619, 35.889364 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }