{ "ticker": { "uuid": "67347940-337d-4bab-8990-8f7babc9c211", "symbol": "XCS5", "name": "Xtrackers MSCI India Swap UCITS ETF", "exchange": "LSE", "country": "GB", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^FTSE", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4c", "phase_label": "Stage 4C \u00b7 Repair watch", "transition": "stage_4_to_1_watch", "transition_label": "Stage 4 \u2192 1 repair watch", "confidence": 69.281, "architecture_regime": "balance", "architecture_regime_label": "Balance", "architecture_modifier": "Balance after decline", "architecture_gate": "mixed", "architecture_direction": 30.289, "architecture_energy": 22.485, "architecture_maturity": 15.42, "architecture_confidence": 61.0, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "Directional pressure has compressed into balance.", "body": "Trend and Activity are compressed into balance, so neither side has durable control. Prior structure and the next directional change provide context; balance alone is not assumed to be a base." }, "scores": { "balance": 41.66, "rotation_up": 53.29, "upward_expansion": 37.98, "deceleration": 29.05, "rotation_down": 22.52, "downward_expansion": 21.98 }, "activity_lines": [ 19.092667, 19.011636, 18.87194, 18.87515 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Stable", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": 0.5 }, "latest_close": 19.41, "trend_reference": 19.0715, "distance_from_trend": 0.017749, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 19.970894, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.028086, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -9.81225, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": -0.060048, "excess_performance": -0.111284, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.017749, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.035067, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.028086, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.0078, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.098122, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.025802, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.060048, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 3.374548, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 89863, "relative_activity": 1.000322, "balance": 3.374548, "dry_up": 1.067843, "accumulation_observations": 3, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.02252, "annualized_volatility": 0.196727, "from_high_reference": -0.10222, "from_low_reference": 0.138416 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 19.0715, "fair_value_reference": 19.970894, "structural_low": 17.049999, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 12, "median_return": -0.016302, "positive_rate": 0.333333, "directional_follow_through": 0.333333, "median_excess_return": -0.0255, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 0.047824, "worst_return": -0.135246, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": -0.022438, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.048087, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 0.093693, "worst_return": -0.173923, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": -0.046223, "positive_rate": 0.0, "directional_follow_through": 0.0, "median_excess_return": -0.106702, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": -0.026218, "worst_return": -0.136854, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", 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"downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2024-12-27", "end": "2025-05-02", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.009268, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-05-09", "end": "2025-06-20", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.034784, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-06-27", "end": "2025-07-25", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.047249, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-08-01", "end": "2025-08-29", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.023687, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2025-09-05", "end": "2025-09-19", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.030098, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-09-26", "end": "2026-01-16", 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"close": 18.635, "volume": 156184, "typical_volume": 103817.65, "trend": 19.18425, "fair_value": 19.935509, "relative_strength": -12.872334, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -17.573511, "energy": 10.119291, "activity_lines": [ 18.858667, 18.826727, 18.748202, 18.857478 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 19.1625, "volume": 83507, "typical_volume": 97435.35, "trend": 19.114333, "fair_value": 19.95184, "relative_strength": -11.068758, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": 2.352707, "energy": 6.239674, "activity_lines": [ 18.9365, 18.902636, 18.800333, 18.856075 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 19.41, "volume": 89863, "typical_volume": 89834.1, "trend": 19.0715, "fair_value": 19.970894, "relative_strength": -9.81225, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 30.289499, "energy": 22.484546, "activity_lines": [ 19.092667, 19.011636, 18.87194, 18.87515 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }