{ "ticker": { "uuid": "673ced70-6c65-48bd-adb5-9a86f49584d8", "symbol": "ORN", "name": "Orion Minerals Limited", "exchange": "ASX", "country": "AU", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^AXJO", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4a", "phase_label": "Stage 4A \u00b7 Breakdown", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 89.711, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Early contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -59.361, "architecture_energy": 46.026, "architecture_maturity": 28.706, "architecture_confidence": 94.024, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 25.55, "rotation_up": 22.65, "upward_expansion": 7.8, "deceleration": 46.03, "rotation_down": 51.54, "downward_expansion": 81.14 }, "activity_lines": [ 0.0232, 0.023527, 0.0246, 0.026052 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.666667 }, "latest_close": 0.023, "trend_reference": 0.0279, "distance_from_trend": -0.175627, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 0.01791, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.28418, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -6.699366, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.394737, "excess_performance": -0.458442, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.175627, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.048872, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.28418, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.437041, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.066994, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.559487, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.394737, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.063412, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 8090174, "relative_activity": 2.315227, "balance": 0.063412, "dry_up": 1.092964, "accumulation_observations": 0, "distribution_observations": 3 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.115385, "annualized_volatility": 0.6127, "from_high_reference": -0.425, "from_low_reference": 1.3 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 0.0279, "fair_value_reference": 0.01791, "structural_low": 0.02, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 30, "median_return": 0.0, "positive_rate": 0.366667, "directional_follow_through": 0.4, "median_excess_return": 0.002033, "regime_survival": 0.766667, "best_return": 0.478261, "worst_return": -0.181818, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 10, "median_return": -0.035714, "positive_rate": 0.4, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.001839, "regime_survival": 0.4, "best_return": 0.7, "worst_return": -0.230769, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": 0.174774, "positive_rate": 0.666667, "directional_follow_through": 0.333333, "median_excess_return": 0.147546, "regime_survival": 0.166667, "best_return": 1.5, "worst_return": -0.285714, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 4, 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"blue", "start": "2025-03-14", "end": "2025-04-18", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.1875, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-04-25", "end": "2025-09-05", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.0, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-09-12", "end": "2025-09-12", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.0, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-09-19", "end": "2025-10-03", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.333333, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-10-10", "end": "2025-10-31", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.0, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-11-07", "end": "2025-12-19", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.142857, "active": false }, { "regime": 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"energy": 28.497701, "activity_lines": [ 0.0243, 0.024, 0.025595, 0.027011 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 0.023, "volume": 221833, "typical_volume": 3469348.9, "trend": 0.027967, "fair_value": 0.017865, "relative_strength": 0.443405, "stage": 3, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -48.553784, "energy": 31.469013, "activity_lines": [ 0.023867, 0.023745, 0.025219, 0.026695 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 0.023, "volume": 3785587, "typical_volume": 3504438.75, "trend": 0.028, "fair_value": 0.017885, "relative_strength": -2.852289, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -59.972206, "energy": 40.62196, "activity_lines": [ 0.0235, 0.0236, 0.02489, 0.026374 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 0.023, "volume": 8090174, "typical_volume": 3494333.7, "trend": 0.0279, "fair_value": 0.01791, "relative_strength": -6.699366, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -59.360667, "energy": 46.025807, "activity_lines": [ 0.0232, 0.023527, 0.0246, 0.026052 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }