{
  "ticker": {
    "uuid": "67520155-fa0c-4a77-b2ca-4fbd913ae851",
    "symbol": "RJET",
    "name": "Republic Airways Holdings Inc",
    "exchange": "NASDAQ",
    "country": "US",
    "assetType": "equity"
  },
  "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.",
  "analysis": {
    "eligible": true,
    "as_of": "2026-08-07",
    "benchmark": "QQQ",
    "stage": 3,
    "stage_name": "Distribution",
    "phase": "3a",
    "phase_label": "Stage 3A \u00b7 Churning",
    "transition": "stage_3_churning",
    "transition_label": "Stage 3 range intact",
    "confidence": 96.0,
    "architecture_regime": "balance",
    "architecture_regime_label": "Balance",
    "architecture_modifier": "Balance after decline",
    "architecture_gate": "up",
    "architecture_direction": 39.803,
    "architecture_energy": 17.064,
    "architecture_maturity": 43.664,
    "architecture_confidence": 54.181,
    "architecture_tenure": "Established",
    "architecture": {
      "interpretation": {
        "headline": "Directional pressure has compressed into balance.",
        "body": "Trend and Activity are compressed into balance, so neither side has durable control. Prior structure and the next directional change provide context; balance alone is not assumed to be a base."
      },
      "scores": {
        "balance": 41.03,
        "rotation_up": 40.93,
        "upward_expansion": 57.54,
        "deceleration": 51.93,
        "rotation_down": 24.8,
        "downward_expansion": 23.54
      },
      "activity_lines": [
        19.640667,
        19.319455,
        19.496095,
        19.340151
      ],
      "activity_state": "Compressed",
      "activity_direction": "Expanding",
      "rotation_direction": "Stable",
      "price_acceptance": 0.0
    },
    "latest_close": 21.39,
    "trend_reference": 19.084667,
    "distance_from_trend": 0.120795,
    "trend_direction": "Weakening",
    "fair_value": 17.153026,
    "distance_from_fair_value": 0.24701,
    "fair_value_direction": "Weakening",
    "relative_strength": -4.007753,
    "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening",
    "price_momentum": 0.079758,
    "excess_performance": -0.107696,
    "evidence": [
      {
        "label": "Price vs Trend",
        "positive": true,
        "value": 0.120795,
        "read": "Above"
      },
      {
        "label": "Trend direction",
        "positive": false,
        "value": -0.022435,
        "read": "Falling"
      },
      {
        "label": "Price vs current Fair Value",
        "positive": true,
        "value": 0.24701,
        "read": "Premium"
      },
      {
        "label": "Fair Value direction",
        "positive": false,
        "value": -0.018285,
        "read": "Moving away"
      },
      {
        "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark",
        "positive": false,
        "value": -0.040078,
        "read": "Lagging"
      },
      {
        "label": "Relative strength direction",
        "positive": false,
        "value": -0.077627,
        "read": "Weakening"
      },
      {
        "label": "Price momentum",
        "positive": true,
        "value": 0.079758,
        "read": "Positive"
      },
      {
        "label": "Volume balance",
        "positive": true,
        "value": 1.461543,
        "read": "Demand-led"
      }
    ],
    "volume": {
      "latest": 510051,
      "relative_activity": 0.680685,
      "balance": 1.461543,
      "dry_up": 0.745088,
      "accumulation_observations": 3,
      "distribution_observations": 2
    },
    "risk": {
      "range_context": 0.155734,
      "annualized_volatility": 0.787399,
      "from_high_reference": -0.198876,
      "from_low_reference": 0.392125
    },
    "levels": {
      "trend_reference": 19.084667,
      "fair_value_reference": 17.153026,
      "structural_low": 15.365,
      "invalidation": "A decisive breakout above range resistance with renewed RS leadership invalidates the distribution reading; a range-low break confirms deterioration."
    },
    "outcomes": [
      {
        "horizon": "Near term",
        "sample_count": 21,
        "median_return": -0.042254,
        "positive_rate": 0.428571,
        "directional_follow_through": 0.428571,
        "median_excess_return": -0.067709,
        "regime_survival": 0.761905,
        "best_return": 0.504202,
        "worst_return": -0.314912,
        "sufficient": true
      },
      {
        "horizon": "Intermediate",
        "sample_count": 7,
        "median_return": -0.104167,
        "positive_rate": 0.428571,
        "directional_follow_through": 0.428571,
        "median_excess_return": -0.128281,
        "regime_survival": 0.571429,
        "best_return": 0.732558,
        "worst_return": -0.565848,
        "sufficient": true
      },
      {
        "horizon": "Extended",
        "sample_count": 4,
        "median_return": -0.006489,
        "positive_rate": 0.5,
        "directional_follow_through": 0.5,
        "median_excess_return": -0.170148,
        "regime_survival": 0.25,
        "best_return": 0.552083,
        "worst_return": -0.549107,
        "sufficient": false
      },
      {
        "horizon": "Full cycle",
        "sample_count": 2,
        "median_return": 0.034934,
        "positive_rate": 0.5,
        "directional_follow_through": 0.5,
        "median_excess_return": -0.231333,
        "regime_survival": 0.5,
        "best_return": 0.27076,
        "worst_return": -0.200893,
        "sufficient": false
      }
    ],
    "ledger": [
      {
        "regime": "deceleration",
        "label": "Deceleration",
        "color": "amber",
        "start": "2024-08-16",
        "end": "2024-10-04",
        "tenure": "Developing",
        "return": -0.109434,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "rotation_down",
        "label": "Rotation Down",
        "color": "orange",
        "start": "2024-10-11",
        "end": "2024-11-08",
        "tenure": "Developing",
        "return": -0.213675,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "downward_expansion",
        "label": "Downward Expansion",
        "color": "red",
        "start": "2024-11-15",
        "end": "2025-01-03",
        "tenure": "Developing",
        "return": 0.471275,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "rotation_up",
        "label": "Rotation Up",
        "color": "teal",
        "start": "2025-01-10",
        "end": "2025-02-21",
        "tenure": "Developing",
        "return": -0.154412,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "balance",
        "label": "Balance",
        "color": "blue",
        "start": "2025-02-28",
        "end": "2025-03-14",
        "tenure": "New",
        "return": -0.154474,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "rotation_down",
        "label": "Rotation Down",
        "color": "orange",
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        "end": "2025-04-04",
        "tenure": "New",
        "return": -0.211876,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "downward_expansion",
        "label": "Downward Expansion",
        "color": "red",
        "start": "2025-04-11",
        "end": "2025-04-25",
        "tenure": "New",
        "return": 0.095238,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "balance",
        "label": "Balance",
        "color": "blue",
        "start": "2025-05-02",
        "end": "2025-07-04",
        "tenure": "Developing",
        "return": -0.126479,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "downward_expansion",
        "label": "Downward Expansion",
        "color": "red",
        "start": "2025-07-11",
        "end": "2025-07-25",
        "tenure": "New",
        "return": 0.147059,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "rotation_up",
        "label": "Rotation Up",
        "color": "teal",
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        "end": "2025-08-22",
        "tenure": "New",
        "return": 0.097222,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "upward_expansion",
        "label": "Upward Expansion",
        "color": "green",
        "start": "2025-08-29",
        "end": "2025-12-12",
        "tenure": "Established",
        "return": 0.004839,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "balance",
        "label": "Balance",
        "color": "blue",
        "start": "2025-12-19",
        "end": "2026-03-27",
        "tenure": "Established",
        "return": -0.166999,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "downward_expansion",
        "label": "Downward Expansion",
        "color": "red",
        "start": "2026-04-03",
        "end": "2026-04-10",
        "tenure": "New",
        "return": 0.101893,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "balance",
        "label": "Balance",
        "color": "blue",
        "start": "2026-04-17",
        "end": "2026-08-07",
        "tenure": "Established",
        "return": 0.016152,
        "active": true
      }
    ],
    "chart_path": [
      {
        "date": "2023-08-18",
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        "typical_volume": 1520965.8,
        "trend": 35.205,
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      },
      {
        "date": "2023-08-25",
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      },
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      },
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        "trend": 19.434,
        "fair_value": 18.150846,
        "relative_strength": -12.765743,
        "stage": 4,
        "regime": "balance",
        "modifier": "Balance after decline",
        "gate": "down",
        "direction": -27.5579,
        "energy": 16.336539,
        "activity_lines": [
          18.979333,
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          18.591524,
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        ]
      },
      {
        "date": "2026-05-08",
        "close": 22.97,
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        "typical_volume": 528757.25,
        "trend": 19.494667,
        "fair_value": 18.153859,
        "relative_strength": 3.754965,
        "stage": 2,
        "regime": "balance",
        "modifier": "Balance after decline",
        "gate": "mixed",
        "direction": 26.233625,
        "energy": 24.296681,
        "activity_lines": [
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        ]
      },
      {
        "date": "2026-05-15",
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        "volume": 678861,
        "typical_volume": 547801.9,
        "trend": 19.478667,
        "fair_value": 18.111359,
        "relative_strength": -8.252553,
        "stage": 4,
        "regime": "balance",
        "modifier": "Balance after decline",
        "gate": "mixed",
        "direction": 8.340106,
        "energy": 18.44168,
        "activity_lines": [
          20.344667,
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        ]
      },
      {
        "date": "2026-05-22",
        "close": 23.57,
        "volume": 781808,
        "typical_volume": 566918.55,
        "trend": 19.539333,
        "fair_value": 18.10091,
        "relative_strength": 5.527465,
        "stage": 2,
        "regime": "balance",
        "modifier": "Balance after decline",
        "gate": "mixed",
        "direction": 35.837505,
        "energy": 43.290212,
        "activity_lines": [
          21.49,
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          19.408645
        ]
      },
      {
        "date": "2026-05-29",
        "close": 20.35,
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        "typical_volume": 628919.3,
        "trend": 19.522667,
        "fair_value": 18.063571,
        "relative_strength": -11.341601,
        "stage": 3,
        "regime": "balance",
        "modifier": "Balance after decline",
        "gate": "mixed",
        "direction": 20.624424,
        "energy": 36.08913,
        "activity_lines": [
          21.394,
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-06-05",
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        "volume": 1000188,
        "typical_volume": 661170.45,
        "trend": 19.385667,
        "fair_value": 18.004532,
        "relative_strength": -19.354747,
        "stage": 3,
        "regime": "balance",
        "modifier": "Balance after decline",
        "gate": "mixed",
        "direction": 3.724672,
        "energy": 6.732568,
        "activity_lines": [
          20.248,
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-06-12",
        "close": 18.25,
        "volume": 679654,
        "typical_volume": 689535.55,
        "trend": 19.194,
        "fair_value": 17.874404,
        "relative_strength": -18.340037,
        "stage": 4,
        "regime": "balance",
        "modifier": "Balance after decline",
        "gate": "up",
        "direction": 21.173861,
        "energy": 9.56568,
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-06-19",
        "close": 18.04,
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        "typical_volume": 695115.95,
        "trend": 19.100333,
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        "relative_strength": -21.244744,
        "stage": 4,
        "regime": "balance",
        "modifier": "Balance after decline",
        "gate": "mixed",
        "direction": -3.141715,
        "energy": 11.898935,
        "activity_lines": [
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-06-26",
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        "volume": 2355093,
        "typical_volume": 798099.25,
        "trend": 19.067333,
        "fair_value": 17.651583,
        "relative_strength": -12.949063,
        "stage": 4,
        "regime": "balance",
        "modifier": "Balance after decline",
        "gate": "mixed",
        "direction": 0.002608,
        "energy": 12.055491,
        "activity_lines": [
          18.519333,
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          19.188516
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-07-03",
        "close": 21.39,
        "volume": 627871,
        "typical_volume": 814157.75,
        "trend": 19.137,
        "fair_value": 17.540622,
        "relative_strength": -3.380275,
        "stage": 2,
        "regime": "balance",
        "modifier": "Balance after decline",
        "gate": "up",
        "direction": 34.392041,
        "energy": 15.736086,
        "activity_lines": [
          19.427333,
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        ]
      },
      {
        "date": "2026-07-10",
        "close": 18.77,
        "volume": 380726,
        "typical_volume": 803899.05,
        "trend": 19.139667,
        "fair_value": 17.447481,
        "relative_strength": -16.62881,
        "stage": 4,
        "regime": "balance",
        "modifier": "Balance after decline",
        "gate": "up",
        "direction": 10.233654,
        "energy": 4.64631,
        "activity_lines": [
          19.392667,
          19.492909,
          19.502095,
          19.314688
        ]
      },
      {
        "date": "2026-07-17",
        "close": 17.21,
        "volume": 322359,
        "typical_volume": 800702.8,
        "trend": 19.044667,
        "fair_value": 17.352994,
        "relative_strength": -19.884046,
        "stage": 4,
        "regime": "balance",
        "modifier": "Balance after decline",
        "gate": "mixed",
        "direction": -16.588514,
        "energy": 8.315796,
        "activity_lines": [
          18.762667,
          18.981091,
          19.302524,
          19.190194
        ]
      },
      {
        "date": "2026-07-24",
        "close": 17.29,
        "volume": 601028,
        "typical_volume": 805230.6,
        "trend": 18.963333,
        "fair_value": 17.247,
        "relative_strength": -17.907892,
        "stage": 4,
        "regime": "balance",
        "modifier": "Balance after decline",
        "gate": "mixed",
        "direction": -15.680683,
        "energy": 11.451623,
        "activity_lines": [
          18.228667,
          18.588545,
          19.132095,
          19.076989
        ]
      },
      {
        "date": "2026-07-31",
        "close": 20.65,
        "volume": 799800,
        "typical_volume": 808946.45,
        "trend": 18.997667,
        "fair_value": 17.187064,
        "relative_strength": -2.530733,
        "stage": 3,
        "regime": "balance",
        "modifier": "Balance after decline",
        "gate": "mixed",
        "direction": 12.973791,
        "energy": 10.331277,
        "activity_lines": [
          18.864667,
          18.860182,
          19.287857,
          19.185806
        ]
      },
      {
        "date": "2026-08-07",
        "close": 21.39,
        "volume": 510051,
        "typical_volume": 749320.15,
        "trend": 19.084667,
        "fair_value": 17.153026,
        "relative_strength": -4.007753,
        "stage": 3,
        "regime": "balance",
        "modifier": "Balance after decline",
        "gate": "up",
        "direction": 39.802911,
        "energy": 17.063915,
        "activity_lines": [
          19.640667,
          19.319455,
          19.496095,
          19.340151
        ]
      }
    ],
    "method": {
      "price_basis": "completed market observations",
      "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.",
      "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.",
      "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.",
      "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read."
    }
  }
}