{ "ticker": { "uuid": "675627ef-ff9f-4a62-b619-a324d5be9d9a", "symbol": "605196", "name": "Hebei Huatong Wires and Cables Group Co., Ltd.", "exchange": "SHH", "country": "CN", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "000001.SS", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4a", "phase_label": "Stage 4A \u00b7 Breakdown", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Early contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -47.062, "architecture_energy": 38.182, "architecture_maturity": 76.561, "architecture_confidence": 85.104, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 28.26, "rotation_up": 27.59, "upward_expansion": 19.16, "deceleration": 46.92, "rotation_down": 37.52, "downward_expansion": 69.16 }, "activity_lines": [ 30.694667, 29.47891, 33.419334, 36.643721 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.5 }, "latest_close": 33.880001, "trend_reference": 39.603334, "distance_from_trend": -0.144516, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 18.759155, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.806052, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -2.23206, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.258643, "excess_performance": -0.215439, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.144516, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.030795, "read": "Falling" 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22.65, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 9, "median_return": 0.098966, "positive_rate": 0.777778, "directional_follow_through": 0.222222, "median_excess_return": 0.047106, "regime_survival": 0.666667, "best_return": 0.454651, "worst_return": -0.106029, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": 0.186235, "positive_rate": 1.0, "directional_follow_through": 0.0, "median_excess_return": 0.211633, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.517647, "worst_return": 0.110783, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": 0.09627, "positive_rate": 1.0, "directional_follow_through": 0.0, "median_excess_return": 0.18149, "regime_survival": 0.333333, "best_return": 0.745098, "worst_return": 0.051699, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", 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"direction": -82.263778, "energy": 92.901745, "activity_lines": [ 26.924, 31.394182, 37.046334, 39.195011 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 23.540001, "volume": 121841938, "typical_volume": 61804853.15, "trend": 39.758667, "fair_value": 18.283107, "relative_strength": -27.325549, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -78.596683, "energy": 91.786362, "activity_lines": [ 25.198667, 29.330182, 35.368381, 38.118839 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 29.620001, "volume": 170027469, "typical_volume": 65545855.4, "trend": 39.663667, "fair_value": 18.428096, "relative_strength": -10.305251, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -67.547414, "energy": 84.099253, "activity_lines": [ 26.288667, 28.737819, 34.38181, 37.464732 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 32.689999, "volume": 151943974, "typical_volume": 69338061.25, "trend": 39.632, "fair_value": 18.592633, "relative_strength": -2.213601, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -63.608613, "energy": 57.563327, "activity_lines": [ 28.512667, 28.920546, 33.791, 37.014818 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 33.880001, "volume": 96526886, "typical_volume": 70074719.6, "trend": 39.603334, "fair_value": 18.759155, "relative_strength": -2.23206, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -47.061595, "energy": 38.182381, "activity_lines": [ 30.694667, 29.47891, 33.419334, 36.643721 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }