{ "ticker": { "uuid": "675949eb-85f5-4789-be0f-65f7bd693074", "symbol": "AVBC", "name": "AvalonBay Communities, Inc.", "exchange": "VIE", "country": "AT", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^ATX", "stage": 1, "stage_name": "Basing", "phase": "1b", "phase_label": "Stage 1B \u00b7 Basing", "transition": "stage_1_building", "transition_label": "Base still building", "confidence": 54.104, "architecture_regime": "upward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Upward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established expansion", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 47.415, "architecture_energy": 37.626, "architecture_maturity": 53.479, "architecture_confidence": 46.319, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding upward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained positive alignment with constructive price acceptance. Directional energy remains positive; cooling within this regime can indicate that it is maturing." }, "scores": { "balance": 29.64, "rotation_up": 44.59, "upward_expansion": 70.75, "deceleration": 64.1, "rotation_down": 23.96, "downward_expansion": 11.75 }, "activity_lines": [ 164.453336, 164.524422, 161.007958, 157.462062 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": 0.5 }, "latest_close": 162.0, "trend_reference": 153.582644, "distance_from_trend": 0.054807, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 165.627577, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.021902, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -14.546538, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": 0.128869, "excess_performance": -0.045378, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.054807, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.029274, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.021902, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.035538, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.145465, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.015777, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.128869, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.616279, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 50, "relative_activity": 5.747126, "balance": 0.616279, "dry_up": 3.994253, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.041389, "annualized_volatility": 0.212576, "from_high_reference": -0.062771, "from_low_reference": 0.184448 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 153.582644, "fair_value_reference": 165.627577, "structural_low": 136.772549, "invalidation": "A renewed decline below the structural range low, widening the discount to current Fair Value while Trend falls, weakens the base diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 26, "median_return": 0.015808, "positive_rate": 0.692308, "directional_follow_through": 0.692308, "median_excess_return": 0.010371, "regime_survival": 0.846154, "best_return": 0.12282, "worst_return": -0.138996, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 9, "median_return": 0.048053, "positive_rate": 0.777778, "directional_follow_through": 0.777778, "median_excess_return": 0.055228, "regime_survival": 0.666667, "best_return": 0.140823, "worst_return": -0.173045, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": -0.022645, "positive_rate": 0.4, "directional_follow_through": 0.4, "median_excess_return": 0.069425, "regime_survival": 0.4, "best_return": 0.232356, "worst_return": -0.13803, "sufficient": true 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164.888333, "relative_strength": -15.322658, "stage": 1, "regime": "rotation_up", "modifier": "Structural repair", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 31.176859, "energy": 54.447669, "activity_lines": [ 153.488672, 149.982626, 148.364423, 148.501058 ] }, { "date": "2026-05-22", "close": 157.13739, "volume": 0, "typical_volume": 1.85, "trend": 149.017633, "fair_value": 164.996169, "relative_strength": -15.252368, "stage": 1, "regime": "rotation_up", "modifier": "Emerging rotation", "gate": "up", "direction": 72.219761, "energy": 74.896925, "activity_lines": [ 155.218914, 151.728439, 149.21638, 149.02177 ] }, { "date": "2026-05-29", "close": 154.219177, "volume": 0, "typical_volume": 1.85, "trend": 149.214584, "fair_value": 165.022898, "relative_strength": -18.355833, "stage": 1, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 62.323204, "energy": 67.19584, "activity_lines": [ 155.313925, 152.770515, 149.762459, 149.357354 ] }, { "date": "2026-06-05", 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"upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 71.673124, "energy": 66.52434, "activity_lines": [ 164.306544, 161.609853, 156.790576, 154.119501 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 171.300003, "volume": 3, "typical_volume": 2.0, "trend": 152.340885, "fair_value": 165.399147, "relative_strength": -7.307984, "stage": 1, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 79.683807, "energy": 84.085743, "activity_lines": [ 167.344989, 163.742218, 158.53577, 155.389128 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 166.800003, "volume": 62, "typical_volume": 5.0, "trend": 152.912946, "fair_value": 165.501604, "relative_strength": -10.394911, "stage": 1, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 64.304132, "energy": 75.75944, "activity_lines": [ 168.054668, 164.766524, 159.746279, 156.321975 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 161.850006, "volume": 24, "typical_volume": 6.2, "trend": 153.265701, "fair_value": 165.567847, "relative_strength": -12.55246, "stage": 1, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 61.730412, "energy": 51.332067, "activity_lines": [ 166.180003, 164.674679, 160.403871, 156.898559 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 162.0, "volume": 50, "typical_volume": 8.7, "trend": 153.582644, "fair_value": 165.627577, "relative_strength": -14.546538, "stage": 1, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 47.415033, "energy": 37.625587, "activity_lines": [ 164.453336, 164.524422, 161.007958, 157.462062 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }