{ "ticker": { "uuid": "675d495c-52ef-480b-b479-991fd47d7da7", "symbol": "688772", "name": "Zhuhai CosMX Battery Co., Ltd.", "exchange": "SHH", "country": "CN", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "000001.SS", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4a", "phase_label": "Stage 4A \u00b7 Breakdown", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Early contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -60.591, "architecture_energy": 50.453, "architecture_maturity": 15.348, "architecture_confidence": 67.497, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 27.07, "rotation_up": 8.23, "upward_expansion": 5.38, "deceleration": 47.66, "rotation_down": 72.98, "downward_expansion": 78.71 }, "activity_lines": [ 14.5, 16.110364, 16.491371, 16.619137 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.666667 }, "latest_close": 14.33, "trend_reference": 17.199867, "distance_from_trend": -0.166854, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 16.626766, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.138137, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -25.11423, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.245698, "excess_performance": -0.202494, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.166854, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.10359, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.138137, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.110456, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.251142, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.064373, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.245698, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.855994, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 106291634, "relative_activity": 0.641652, "balance": 0.855994, "dry_up": 0.812537, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 4 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.178945, "annualized_volatility": 0.610479, "from_high_reference": -0.500062, "from_low_reference": 0.098084 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 17.199867, "fair_value_reference": 16.626766, "structural_low": 13.05, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 16, "median_return": 0.016144, "positive_rate": 0.5625, "directional_follow_through": 0.4375, "median_excess_return": -0.007824, "regime_survival": 0.75, "best_return": 0.26039, "worst_return": -0.085735, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": 0.17841, "positive_rate": 0.833333, "directional_follow_through": 0.166667, "median_excess_return": 0.218341, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 0.63477, "worst_return": -0.153949, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": 0.185436, "positive_rate": 1.0, "directional_follow_through": 0.0, "median_excess_return": 0.252052, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.761511, "worst_return": 0.032176, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": 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17.908507, "fair_value": 16.734921, "relative_strength": -22.376754, "stage": 4, "regime": "rotation_up", "modifier": "Emerging rotation", "gate": "down", "direction": -42.786747, "energy": 18.588358, "activity_lines": [ 17.549334, 17.804996, 17.186076, 17.288135 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 13.63, "volume": 134186641, "typical_volume": 166588503.1, "trend": 17.643796, "fair_value": 16.698403, "relative_strength": -26.459522, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "down", "direction": -55.665142, "energy": 37.311305, "activity_lines": [ 15.908, 17.107569, 16.888281, 17.012102 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 14.65, "volume": 128833707, "typical_volume": 165547883.9, "trend": 17.427165, "fair_value": 16.662732, "relative_strength": -21.32151, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "down", "direction": -57.754858, "energy": 45.083164, "activity_lines": [ 15.046, 16.618, 16.700466, 16.818954 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 14.33, "volume": 106291634, "typical_volume": 165653111.5, "trend": 17.199867, "fair_value": 16.626766, "relative_strength": -25.11423, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -60.590897, "energy": 50.4532, "activity_lines": [ 14.5, 16.110364, 16.491371, 16.619137 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }