{ "ticker": { "uuid": "675deaf3-ee9c-43ab-bdcb-ad3d559395db", "symbol": "NPI", "name": "Notorious Pictures S.p.A.", "exchange": "MIL", "country": "IT", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "FTSEMIB.MI", "stage": 1, "stage_name": "Basing", "phase": "1c", "phase_label": "Stage 1C \u00b7 Breakout watch", "transition": "stage_1_to_2_watch", "transition_label": "Stage 1 \u2192 2 watch", "confidence": 72.896, "architecture_regime": "rotation_up", "architecture_regime_label": "Rotation Up", "architecture_modifier": "Structural repair", "architecture_gate": "mixed", "architecture_direction": 58.417, "architecture_energy": 66.988, "architecture_maturity": 13.775, "architecture_confidence": 63.113, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The Activity Line structure is rotating upward.", "body": "Fast Activity is improving relative to Slow Activity and price acceptance is strengthening. This is earlier than full positive Trend confirmation and remains a developing repair." }, "scores": { "balance": 18.22, "rotation_up": 71.59, "upward_expansion": 61.04, "deceleration": 23.77, "rotation_down": 19.47, "downward_expansion": 24.04 }, "activity_lines": [ 0.695, 0.673091, 0.659843, 0.656178 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": 0.5 }, "latest_close": 0.755, "trend_reference": 0.658133, "distance_from_trend": 0.147184, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 0.848359, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.110047, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -4.328291, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": 0.113569, "excess_performance": -0.057322, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.147184, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.002375, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.110047, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.195229, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.043283, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.155314, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.113569, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 41.25, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 38000, "relative_activity": 0.930916, "balance": 41.25, "dry_up": 0.502205, "accumulation_observations": 0, "distribution_observations": 0 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.046867, "annualized_volatility": 0.222482, "from_high_reference": -0.019481, "from_low_reference": 0.268908 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 0.658133, "fair_value_reference": 0.848359, "structural_low": 0.595, "invalidation": "A renewed decline below the structural range low, widening the discount to current Fair Value while Trend falls, weakens the base diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": -0.028205, "positive_rate": 0.333333, "directional_follow_through": 0.333333, "median_excess_return": -0.07513, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.005291, "worst_return": -0.064516, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": -0.039683, "positive_rate": 0.333333, "directional_follow_through": 0.333333, "median_excess_return": -0.082923, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.122581, "worst_return": -0.176923, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": -0.066138, "positive_rate": 0.0, "directional_follow_through": 0.0, "median_excess_return": -0.159091, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": -0.03513, "worst_return": -0.220513, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": -0.207428, "positive_rate": 0.0, "directional_follow_through": 0.0, "median_excess_return": -0.3472, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": -0.126984, "worst_return": -0.248926, "sufficient": false } ], "ledger": [ { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2023-06-09", "end": "2023-06-30", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.053333, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2023-07-07", "end": "2023-07-28", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.013986, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2023-08-04", "end": "2023-08-04", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.0, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2023-08-11", "end": "2025-02-07", "tenure": "Extended", "return": -0.440741, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-02-14", "end": "2025-05-23", "tenure": "Established", "return": -0.086093, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-05-30", "end": "2025-06-20", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.072046, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-06-27", "end": "2025-07-18", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.024324, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-07-25", "end": "2025-08-01", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.026455, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-08-08", "end": "2025-10-31", "tenure": "Established", "return": -0.128767, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-11-07", "end": "2026-01-09", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.073016, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2026-01-16", "end": "2026-02-27", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.081921, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2026-03-06", "end": "2026-05-29", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.009317, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2026-06-05", "end": "2026-07-31", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.069231, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2026-08-07", "end": "2026-08-07", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.0, "active": true } ], "chart_path": [ { "date": "2023-08-18", "close": 1.28, "volume": 116400, "typical_volume": 131340.0, "trend": 1.464113, "fair_value": 1.446198, "relative_strength": -17.268534, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -82.355401, "energy": 73.640175, "activity_lines": [ 1.354, 1.383455, 1.437215, 1.455411 ] }, { "date": "2023-08-25", "close": 1.33, "volume": 132800, "typical_volume": 136040.0, "trend": 1.459456, "fair_value": 1.445469, "relative_strength": -14.897306, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -66.054172, "energy": 72.366679, "activity_lines": [ 1.338, 1.370545, 1.42239, 1.446759 ] }, { "date": "2023-09-01", "close": 1.3, "volume": 106800, "typical_volume": 138340.0, "trend": 1.454424, "fair_value": 1.44469, "relative_strength": -17.565715, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -69.35684, "energy": 75.556915, "activity_lines": [ 1.317333, 1.354364, 1.405685, 1.436471 ] }, { "date": "2023-09-08", "close": 1.27, "volume": 26400, "typical_volume": 136040.0, "trend": 1.448392, "fair_value": 1.443861, "relative_strength": -17.720463, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", 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"stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -46.893128, "energy": 32.072014, "activity_lines": [ 0.637, 0.643, 0.642886, 0.646908 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 0.66, "volume": 6400, "typical_volume": 37860.0, "trend": 0.655067, "fair_value": 0.856692, "relative_strength": -14.238828, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -16.992323, "energy": 10.191959, "activity_lines": [ 0.643333, 0.645636, 0.644533, 0.647183 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 0.695, "volume": 36400, "typical_volume": 39120.0, "trend": 0.6555, "fair_value": 0.852173, "relative_strength": -9.736567, "stage": 1, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 31.764169, "energy": 30.972531, "activity_lines": [ 0.661333, 0.654364, 0.649438, 0.649759 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 0.755, "volume": 38000, "typical_volume": 40820.0, "trend": 0.658133, "fair_value": 0.848359, "relative_strength": -4.328291, "stage": 1, "regime": "rotation_up", "modifier": "Structural repair", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 58.41705, "energy": 66.987751, "activity_lines": [ 0.695, 0.673091, 0.659843, 0.656178 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }