{ "ticker": { "uuid": "6760bd68-1e19-45e9-a78b-1caf67f1be4d", "symbol": "BYW6", "name": "BayWa Aktiengesellschaft", "exchange": "GER", "country": "DE", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-09-25", "benchmark": "^GDAXI", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 71.616, "architecture_regime": "balance", "architecture_regime_label": "Balance", "architecture_modifier": "Balance after decline", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -34.268, "architecture_energy": 19.778, "architecture_maturity": 24.793, "architecture_confidence": 65.73, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "Directional pressure has compressed into balance.", "body": "Trend and Activity are compressed into balance, so neither side has durable control. Prior structure and the next directional change provide context; balance alone is not assumed to be a base." }, "scores": { "balance": 52.88, "rotation_up": 11.89, "upward_expansion": 6.88, "deceleration": 61.8, "rotation_down": 49.38, "downward_expansion": 65.88 }, "activity_lines": [ 2.596, 2.627364, 2.609333, 2.618957 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.5 }, "latest_close": 2.62, "trend_reference": 2.6505, "distance_from_trend": -0.011507, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 7.296115, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.640905, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -15.04914, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": -0.007576, "excess_performance": -0.146938, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.011507, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.072008, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.640905, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.103277, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.150491, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.255447, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.007576, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.705041, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 44943, "relative_activity": 0.886139, "balance": 0.705041, "dry_up": 1.852616, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.074134, "annualized_volatility": 0.289407, "from_high_reference": -0.6725, "from_low_reference": 0.201835 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 2.6505, "fair_value_reference": 7.296115, "structural_low": 2.18, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 12, "median_return": -0.013779, "positive_rate": 0.333333, "directional_follow_through": 0.333333, "median_excess_return": -0.007849, "regime_survival": 0.333333, "best_return": 0.205418, "worst_return": -0.093051, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": -0.043597, "positive_rate": 0.428571, "directional_follow_through": 0.428571, "median_excess_return": -0.031596, "regime_survival": 0.142857, "best_return": 0.3686, "worst_return": -0.505841, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": -0.126704, "positive_rate": 0.25, "directional_follow_through": 0.25, "median_excess_return": -0.230547, "regime_survival": 0.25, "best_return": 0.308933, "worst_return": -0.512568, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": 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"gate": "down", "direction": -5.772318, "energy": 15.408632, "activity_lines": [ 2.691, 2.643, 2.614238, 2.649828 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-28", "close": 2.68, "volume": 83269, "typical_volume": 64319.25, "trend": 2.721, "fair_value": 7.718014, "relative_strength": -22.16231, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -7.15431, "energy": 11.283248, "activity_lines": [ 2.686, 2.661545, 2.618976, 2.645624 ] }, { "date": "2026-09-04", "close": 2.6, "volume": 81006, "typical_volume": 57950.3, "trend": 2.7015, "fair_value": 7.618616, "relative_strength": -21.57244, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -22.884895, "energy": 11.497505, "activity_lines": [ 2.654, 2.660364, 2.616071, 2.637817 ] }, { "date": "2026-09-11", "close": 2.6, "volume": 36748, "typical_volume": 54648.0, "trend": 2.683333, "fair_value": 7.509744, "relative_strength": -18.802737, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -28.798339, "energy": 15.665255, "activity_lines": [ 2.630333, 2.652455, 2.61419, 2.631269 ] }, { "date": "2026-09-18", "close": 2.54, "volume": 213145, "typical_volume": 58774.4, "trend": 2.6675, "fair_value": 7.402126, "relative_strength": -18.549251, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -39.181428, "energy": 21.151472, "activity_lines": [ 2.593, 2.632545, 2.607333, 2.622022 ] }, { "date": "2026-09-25", "close": 2.62, "volume": 44943, "typical_volume": 50717.75, "trend": 2.6505, "fair_value": 7.296115, "relative_strength": -15.04914, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -34.268235, "energy": 19.777507, "activity_lines": [ 2.596, 2.627364, 2.609333, 2.618957 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }