{ "ticker": { "uuid": "6763ab08-de26-4580-94ac-4a873f5cd622", "symbol": "601319", "name": "The People's Insurance Company (Group) of China Limited", "exchange": "SHH", "country": "CN", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "000001.SS", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "balance", "architecture_regime_label": "Balance", "architecture_modifier": "Balance after decline", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -14.455, "architecture_energy": 15.145, "architecture_maturity": 38.379, "architecture_confidence": 57.963, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "Directional pressure has compressed into balance.", "body": "Trend and Activity are compressed into balance, so neither side has durable control. Prior structure and the next directional change provide context; balance alone is not assumed to be a base." }, "scores": { "balance": 60.93, "rotation_up": 32.47, "upward_expansion": 26.01, "deceleration": 50.03, "rotation_down": 18.17, "downward_expansion": 45.67 }, "activity_lines": [ 7.199854, 7.095193, 7.05103, 7.267176 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": 0.166667 }, "latest_close": 7.09, "trend_reference": 7.704369, "distance_from_trend": -0.079743, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 6.706058, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.057253, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -11.129961, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": -0.230185, "excess_performance": -0.186981, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.079743, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.069384, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.057253, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.053099, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.1113, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.085762, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.230185, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.771853, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 362814757, "relative_activity": 1.200603, "balance": 0.771853, "dry_up": 1.46876, "accumulation_observations": 3, "distribution_observations": 6 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.062169, "annualized_volatility": 0.243452, "from_high_reference": -0.303536, "from_low_reference": 0.080793 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 7.704369, "fair_value_reference": 6.706058, "structural_low": 6.56, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 12, "median_return": 0.037312, "positive_rate": 0.666667, "directional_follow_through": 0.666667, "median_excess_return": 0.042738, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 0.196154, "worst_return": -0.105536, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": 0.098361, "positive_rate": 0.666667, "directional_follow_through": 0.666667, "median_excess_return": 0.092249, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.350166, "worst_return": -0.181356, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": 0.165122, "positive_rate": 0.8, "directional_follow_through": 0.8, "median_excess_return": 0.17229, "regime_survival": 0.4, "best_return": 0.433933, "worst_return": -0.144068, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": 0.112568, "positive_rate": 1.0, "directional_follow_through": 1.0, "median_excess_return": 0.176647, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.38772, "worst_return": 0.054754, "sufficient": false } ], "ledger": [ { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2024-05-03", "end": "2024-06-21", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.024762, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2024-06-28", "end": "2024-07-26", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.060194, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2024-08-02", "end": "2025-01-10", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.215363, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-01-17", "end": "2025-03-14", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.023392, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-03-21", "end": "2025-05-23", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.199418, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-05-30", "end": "2025-08-01", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.013301, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-08-08", "end": "2025-08-22", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.066586, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-08-29", "end": "2025-09-26", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.138085, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-10-03", "end": "2025-11-14", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.130937, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-11-21", "end": "2026-02-06", 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"direction": -39.939029, "energy": 28.451308, "activity_lines": [ 6.986057, 6.916738, 7.04062, 7.377956 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 7.30711, "volume": 534092558, "typical_volume": 288957177.95, "trend": 7.828369, "fair_value": 6.683593, "relative_strength": -6.118836, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -32.601728, "energy": 21.540211, "activity_lines": [ 7.116831, 6.992323, 7.043183, 7.340385 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 7.37, "volume": 404600531, "typical_volume": 298251235.5, "trend": 7.766369, "fair_value": 6.695223, "relative_strength": -5.418158, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -12.30054, "energy": 14.803386, "activity_lines": [ 7.22476, 7.073031, 7.057844, 7.310813 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 7.09, "volume": 362814757, "typical_volume": 302193853.8, "trend": 7.704369, "fair_value": 6.706058, "relative_strength": -11.129961, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -14.455414, "energy": 15.145315, "activity_lines": [ 7.199854, 7.095193, 7.05103, 7.267176 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }