{ "ticker": { "uuid": "67694d46-bc5b-41dd-9fdc-b204070622f5", "symbol": "PRKS", "name": "United Parks & Resorts Inc", "exchange": "NYSE", "country": "US", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "SPY", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2a", "phase_label": "Stage 2A \u00b7 Early advance", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "deceleration", "architecture_regime_label": "Deceleration", "architecture_modifier": "Recompressing", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 40.985, "architecture_energy": 28.459, "architecture_maturity": 60.981, "architecture_confidence": 82.744, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The upward structure remains, but its energy is decelerating.", "body": "Trend remains positive, but Activity or price acceptance is losing strength. This can become a healthy recompression, a re-acceleration, or a Rotation Down." }, "scores": { "balance": 34.78, "rotation_up": 29.55, "upward_expansion": 61.54, "deceleration": 90.91, "rotation_down": 26.63, "downward_expansion": 16.21 }, "activity_lines": [ 45.016667, 45.623091, 43.261857, 41.023118 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": 0.166667 }, "latest_close": 45.03, "trend_reference": 38.774333, "distance_from_trend": 0.161335, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 47.236538, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.046713, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -2.684978, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": 0.216041, "excess_performance": 0.090416, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.161335, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.093847, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.046713, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.139508, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.02685, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.146746, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.216041, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.753945, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 4560313, "relative_activity": 1.016813, "balance": 1.753945, "dry_up": 0.792104, "accumulation_observations": 6, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.097636, "annualized_volatility": 0.438592, "from_high_reference": -0.209306, "from_low_reference": 0.565172 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 38.774333, "fair_value_reference": 47.236538, "structural_low": 28.77, "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 11, "median_return": -0.039193, "positive_rate": 0.363636, "directional_follow_through": 0.363636, "median_excess_return": -0.026498, "regime_survival": 0.363636, "best_return": 0.057731, "worst_return": -0.388017, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": -0.031084, "positive_rate": 0.166667, "directional_follow_through": 0.166667, "median_excess_return": -0.091722, "regime_survival": 0.166667, "best_return": 0.191361, "worst_return": -0.275268, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": -0.152827, "positive_rate": 0.25, "directional_follow_through": 0.25, "median_excess_return": -0.231968, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.379289, "worst_return": -0.309533, "sufficient": false }, { 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"rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-08-01", "end": "2025-08-29", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.1276, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-09-05", "end": "2025-10-10", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.069814, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-10-17", "end": "2025-10-31", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.073507, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2025-11-07", "end": "2025-11-21", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.09128, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-11-28", "end": "2026-01-02", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.003602, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2026-01-09", "end": "2026-01-16", 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{ "date": "2026-07-03", "close": 48.44, "volume": 3038547, "typical_volume": 4986523.15, "trend": 37.256667, "fair_value": 47.478013, "relative_strength": 5.723277, "stage": 1, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 77.34853, "energy": 86.381524, "activity_lines": [ 46.778, 43.857091, 40.148524, 38.641957 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-10", "close": 46.87, "volume": 2863186, "typical_volume": 4933575.15, "trend": 37.597667, "fair_value": 47.437051, "relative_strength": 1.389641, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 66.339512, "energy": 80.417649, "activity_lines": [ 47.193333, 44.821636, 41.027714, 39.262172 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 45.11, "volume": 2204404, "typical_volume": 4537053.4, "trend": 37.946, "fair_value": 47.388974, "relative_strength": -0.367668, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 63.213191, "energy": 62.3038, "activity_lines": [ 46.615333, 45.255273, 41.684857, 39.746839 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 44.83, "volume": 2833119, "typical_volume": 4460804.85, "trend": 38.240667, "fair_value": 47.339808, "relative_strength": 0.255153, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 59.335858, "energy": 47.354459, "activity_lines": [ 45.946667, 45.530909, 42.26619, 40.190968 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 44.63, "volume": 4612223, "typical_volume": 4455615.9, "trend": 38.521, "fair_value": 47.277564, "relative_strength": -0.767009, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 45.119794, "energy": 34.522398, "activity_lines": [ 45.332, 45.612, 42.777762, 40.603183 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 45.03, "volume": 4560313, "typical_volume": 4484907.5, "trend": 38.774333, "fair_value": 47.236538, "relative_strength": -2.684978, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 40.984786, "energy": 28.45859, "activity_lines": [ 45.016667, 45.623091, 43.261857, 41.023118 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }