{ "ticker": { "uuid": "677f4ccb-e2bf-448f-9a2b-f818238b104e", "symbol": "IHI", "name": "ISHARES TRUST U.S. MEDICAL DEVICES ETF", "exchange": "NYSEARCA", "country": "US", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "SPY", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4c", "phase_label": "Stage 4C \u00b7 Repair watch", "transition": "stage_4_to_1_watch", "transition_label": "Stage 4 \u2192 1 repair watch", "confidence": 82.533, "architecture_regime": "balance", "architecture_regime_label": "Balance", "architecture_modifier": "Balance after decline", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": 7.827, "architecture_energy": 13.558, "architecture_maturity": 15.891, "architecture_confidence": 56.306, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "Directional pressure has compressed into balance.", "body": "Trend and Activity are compressed into balance, so neither side has durable control. Prior structure and the next directional change provide context; balance alone is not assumed to be a base." }, "scores": { "balance": 54.68, "rotation_up": 36.77, "upward_expansion": 32.94, "deceleration": 44.64, "rotation_down": 18.06, "downward_expansion": 43.61 }, "activity_lines": [ 52.332667, 51.632079, 51.046909, 51.842392 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": 0.166667 }, "latest_close": 54.38, "trend_reference": 53.55448, "distance_from_trend": 0.015415, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 56.64567, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.039997, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -15.321532, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": -0.06607, "excess_performance": -0.191695, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.015415, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.066916, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.039997, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.100841, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.153215, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.118724, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.06607, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.84707, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 13783603, "relative_activity": 1.037932, "balance": 0.84707, "dry_up": 1.121241, "accumulation_observations": 5, "distribution_observations": 5 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.046464, "annualized_volatility": 0.195257, "from_high_reference": -0.157717, "from_low_reference": 0.149842 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 53.55448, "fair_value_reference": 56.64567, "structural_low": 47.293464, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 18, "median_return": 0.004558, "positive_rate": 0.555556, "directional_follow_through": 0.555556, "median_excess_return": 0.00377, "regime_survival": 0.444444, "best_return": 0.069281, "worst_return": -0.134021, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 10, "median_return": -0.040389, "positive_rate": 0.2, "directional_follow_through": 0.2, "median_excess_return": -0.03937, "regime_survival": 0.3, "best_return": 0.070592, "worst_return": -0.167077, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": -0.028739, "positive_rate": 0.166667, "directional_follow_through": 0.166667, "median_excess_return": -0.088149, "regime_survival": 0.166667, "best_return": 0.099736, "worst_return": -0.220887, "sufficient": 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false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2025-04-11", "end": "2025-05-09", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.075071, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-05-16", "end": "2025-08-29", "tenure": "Established", "return": -0.010556, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-09-05", "end": "2025-09-19", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.032818, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-09-26", "end": "2025-10-10", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.014243, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2025-10-17", "end": "2025-10-24", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.034269, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-10-31", "end": "2025-11-28", "tenure": 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50.139672, 51.021183, 52.745706 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-10", "close": 51.34, "volume": 18479801, "typical_volume": 12451656.6, "trend": 54.990401, "fair_value": 56.715749, "relative_strength": -20.156545, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -37.190374, "energy": 21.900292, "activity_lines": [ 51.002999, 50.406844, 50.911638, 52.487302 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 50.51, "volume": 17347685, "typical_volume": 12976783.45, "trend": 54.591157, "fair_value": 56.675737, "relative_strength": -19.700394, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -33.812653, "energy": 20.019089, "activity_lines": [ 50.978667, 50.506447, 50.760592, 52.198244 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 50.23, "volume": 13506961, "typical_volume": 13007136.05, "trend": 54.17626, "fair_value": 56.638731, "relative_strength": -19.139797, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -36.931043, "energy": 18.085543, "activity_lines": [ 50.8, 50.526523, 50.628369, 51.916879 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 52.51, "volume": 14921522, "typical_volume": 13097448.5, "trend": 53.868292, "fair_value": 56.633522, "relative_strength": -15.879694, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -12.033263, "energy": 8.729985, "activity_lines": [ 51.304, 50.927632, 50.743769, 51.809379 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 54.38, "volume": 13783603, "typical_volume": 13279873.9, "trend": 53.55448, "fair_value": 56.64567, "relative_strength": -15.321532, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": 7.827217, "energy": 13.557949, "activity_lines": [ 52.332667, 51.632079, 51.046909, 51.842392 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }