{ "ticker": { "uuid": "678a2845-6a9f-4407-b6b6-f789352d91f6", "symbol": "SECARE", "name": "Swedencare AB (publ)", "exchange": "STO", "country": "SE", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^OMX", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Early contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -78.124, "architecture_energy": 79.931, "architecture_maturity": 17.436, "architecture_confidence": 79.037, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 15.13, "rotation_up": 8.62, "upward_expansion": 17.09, "deceleration": 37.07, "rotation_down": 80.14, "downward_expansion": 92.75 }, "activity_lines": [ 22.58, 23.844545, 25.00282, 25.19442 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.833333 }, "latest_close": 21.450001, "trend_reference": 25.779714, "distance_from_trend": -0.16795, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 42.158402, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.491205, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -37.942563, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.131238, "excess_performance": -0.192732, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.16795, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.129133, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.491205, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.059741, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.379426, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.023523, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.131238, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.61647, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 1557689, "relative_activity": 1.5621, "balance": 0.61647, "dry_up": 1.744182, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.091088, "annualized_volatility": 0.372744, "from_high_reference": -0.483914, "from_low_reference": 0.014184 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 25.779714, "fair_value_reference": 42.158402, "structural_low": 21.15, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 32, "median_return": 0.027477, "positive_rate": 0.5625, "directional_follow_through": 0.4375, "median_excess_return": -0.000209, "regime_survival": 0.8125, "best_return": 0.533262, "worst_return": -0.296356, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 11, "median_return": 0.031598, "positive_rate": 0.545455, "directional_follow_through": 0.454545, "median_excess_return": 0.006361, "regime_survival": 0.545455, "best_return": 0.3466, "worst_return": -0.433295, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": -0.119008, "positive_rate": 0.333333, "directional_follow_through": 0.666667, "median_excess_return": -0.216418, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 0.337084, "worst_return": -0.502577, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": 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"gate": "down", "direction": -34.801642, "energy": 22.252699, "activity_lines": [ 25.866666, 26.230909, 26.120898, 26.440485 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-10", "close": 25.6, "volume": 847931, "typical_volume": 900788.9, "trend": 27.732148, "fair_value": 42.750968, "relative_strength": -27.248126, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -47.520816, "energy": 31.222354, "activity_lines": [ 25.626666, 26.108182, 26.108596, 26.283708 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 25.85, "volume": 1174346, "typical_volume": 898731.9, "trend": 27.353528, "fair_value": 42.623784, "relative_strength": -24.523445, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -48.070913, "energy": 30.213981, "activity_lines": [ 25.603333, 26.054545, 26.114593, 26.162279 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 22.049999, "volume": 3488550, "typical_volume": 1027509.0, "trend": 26.844942, "fair_value": 42.485909, "relative_strength": -35.74754, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -77.520028, "energy": 59.83579, "activity_lines": [ 24.436666, 25.29, 25.753869, 25.820116 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 22.0, "volume": 736443, "typical_volume": 988742.1, "trend": 26.303352, "fair_value": 42.321567, "relative_strength": -35.918221, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -76.884029, "energy": 70.636724, "activity_lines": [ 23.516666, 24.57, 25.39813, 25.507539 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 21.450001, "volume": 1557689, "typical_volume": 997176.05, "trend": 25.779714, "fair_value": 42.158402, "relative_strength": -37.942563, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -78.124021, "energy": 79.930725, "activity_lines": [ 22.58, 23.844545, 25.00282, 25.19442 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }