{ "ticker": { "uuid": "678b36ad-f4f3-4f8f-8ee7-f3b4c1b1f4eb", "symbol": "QUS5", "name": "State Street SPDR ETFs Europe I plc - SPDR S&P 500 Quality Aristocrats UCITS ETF USD Unh (Acc)", "exchange": "LSE", "country": "GB", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^FTSE", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2a", "phase_label": "Stage 2A \u00b7 Early advance", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "upward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Upward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Early expansion", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 92.469, "architecture_energy": 75.949, "architecture_maturity": 27.595, "architecture_confidence": 79.546, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding upward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained positive alignment with constructive price acceptance. Directional energy remains positive; cooling within this regime can indicate that it is maturing." }, "scores": { "balance": 10.7, "rotation_up": 69.05, "upward_expansion": 85.71, "deceleration": 56.09, "rotation_down": 22.08, "downward_expansion": 12.38 }, "activity_lines": [ 12.991533, 12.869545, 12.659881, 12.41009 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Stable", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": 0.666667 }, "latest_close": 13.324, "trend_reference": 12.152733, "distance_from_trend": 0.096379, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 11.210707, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.188507, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": 3.058556, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": 0.122399, "excess_performance": 0.071164, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.096379, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.027527, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.188507, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.070429, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": true, "value": 0.030586, "read": "Leading" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.020521, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.122399, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 2.218444, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 5226, "relative_activity": 0.442362, "balance": 2.218444, "dry_up": 0.60628, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.015229, "annualized_volatility": 0.128757, "from_high_reference": -0.00015, "from_low_reference": 0.225533 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 12.152733, "fair_value_reference": 11.210707, "structural_low": 10.872, "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 1, "median_return": 0.030419, "positive_rate": 1.0, "directional_follow_through": 1.0, "median_excess_return": 0.00754, "regime_survival": 1.0, "best_return": 0.030419, "worst_return": 0.030419, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 0, "median_return": null, "positive_rate": null, "directional_follow_through": null, "median_excess_return": null, "regime_survival": null, "best_return": null, "worst_return": null, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 0, "median_return": null, "positive_rate": null, "directional_follow_through": null, "median_excess_return": null, "regime_survival": null, "best_return": null, "worst_return": null, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 0, "median_return": null, "positive_rate": null, 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12.439052, 12.238372 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 12.781, "volume": 21014, "typical_volume": 15210.4, "trend": 12.0786, "fair_value": 11.167171, "relative_strength": 0.35419, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 65.462308, "energy": 86.053912, "activity_lines": [ 12.828533, 12.737509, 12.500752, 12.285338 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 12.798, "volume": 1823, "typical_volume": 14945.55, "trend": 12.109733, "fair_value": 11.186134, "relative_strength": -0.703655, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 64.899579, "energy": 81.460083, "activity_lines": [ 12.833733, 12.757564, 12.558581, 12.331751 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 13.324, "volume": 5226, "typical_volume": 11813.85, "trend": 12.152733, "fair_value": 11.210707, "relative_strength": 3.058556, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 92.46916, "energy": 75.949243, "activity_lines": [ 12.991533, 12.869545, 12.659881, 12.41009 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }