{ "ticker": { "uuid": "678f75b8-d849-4b8b-ba14-8d827b79af45", "symbol": "VTN", "name": "Invesco Trust For Investment Grade New York Municipals", "exchange": "NYSE", "country": "US", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "SPY", "stage": 3, "stage_name": "Distribution", "phase": "3a", "phase_label": "Stage 3A \u00b7 Churning", "transition": "stage_3_churning", "transition_label": "Stage 3 range intact", "confidence": 81.888, "architecture_regime": "balance", "architecture_regime_label": "Balance", "architecture_modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 49.339, "architecture_energy": 21.558, "architecture_maturity": 17.552, "architecture_confidence": 70.846, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "Directional pressure has compressed into balance.", "body": "Trend and Activity are compressed into balance, so neither side has durable control. Prior structure and the next directional change provide context; balance alone is not assumed to be a base." }, "scores": { "balance": 42.88, "rotation_up": 39.91, "upward_expansion": 62.26, "deceleration": 82.17, "rotation_down": 23.68, "downward_expansion": 14.6 }, "activity_lines": [ 11.191539, 11.21157, 11.137501, 11.101516 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": 0.333333 }, "latest_close": 11.43, "trend_reference": 11.100792, "distance_from_trend": 0.029656, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 9.750978, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.17219, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -6.119258, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.006845, "excess_performance": -0.11878, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.029656, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.006692, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.17219, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.005824, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.061193, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.006428, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.006845, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.989058, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 122349, "relative_activity": 1.050684, "balance": 0.989058, "dry_up": 0.920015, "accumulation_observations": 4, "distribution_observations": 3 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.029774, "annualized_volatility": 0.173541, "from_high_reference": -0.02962, "from_low_reference": 0.214278 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 11.100792, "fair_value_reference": 9.750978, "structural_low": 10.31863, "invalidation": "A decisive breakout above range resistance with renewed RS leadership invalidates the distribution reading; a range-low break confirms deterioration." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 16, "median_return": -0.018035, "positive_rate": 0.4375, "directional_follow_through": 0.4375, "median_excess_return": -0.010402, "regime_survival": 0.5625, "best_return": 0.068099, "worst_return": -0.083172, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": -0.016643, "positive_rate": 0.285714, "directional_follow_through": 0.285714, "median_excess_return": -0.056127, "regime_survival": 0.142857, "best_return": 0.046498, "worst_return": -0.142135, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": -0.058356, "positive_rate": 0.25, "directional_follow_through": 0.25, "median_excess_return": -0.038466, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.125931, "worst_return": 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"Established", "return": 0.037866, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2024-11-01", "end": "2024-11-29", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.040358, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2024-12-06", "end": "2024-12-13", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.049743, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2024-12-20", "end": "2025-01-10", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.032957, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-01-17", "end": "2025-05-09", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.023046, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-05-16", "end": "2025-07-11", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.027283, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward 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"relative_strength": -4.810688, "stage": 3, "regime": "rotation_up", "modifier": "Emerging rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 26.237434, "energy": 28.471788, "activity_lines": [ 11.251105, 11.213956, 11.115271, 11.095318 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 10.86, "volume": 146525, "typical_volume": 117915.65, "trend": 11.09341, "fair_value": 9.730322, "relative_strength": -7.755563, "stage": 3, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -11.117671, "energy": 7.590554, "activity_lines": [ 11.111896, 11.161089, 11.098775, 11.079801 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 11.43, "volume": 122349, "typical_volume": 116447.0, "trend": 11.100792, "fair_value": 9.750978, "relative_strength": -6.119258, "stage": 3, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "up", "direction": 49.338838, "energy": 21.558305, "activity_lines": [ 11.191539, 11.21157, 11.137501, 11.101516 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }