{ "ticker": { "uuid": "678ff92e-61a7-4002-8745-38c26817abbc", "symbol": "3540", "name": "Thermaltake Technology Co., Ltd.", "exchange": "TWO", "country": "TW", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-14", "benchmark": "^TWII", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -65.972, "architecture_energy": 76.47, "architecture_maturity": 65.224, "architecture_confidence": 88.354, "architecture_tenure": "Established", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 3.85, "rotation_up": 12.38, "upward_expansion": 17.81, "deceleration": 38.53, "rotation_down": 73.66, "downward_expansion": 93.48 }, "activity_lines": [ 20.585902, 21.642447, 23.371886, 24.600033 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.833333 }, "latest_close": 20.700001, "trend_reference": 26.379574, "distance_from_trend": -0.215302, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 35.172878, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.411478, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -50.241764, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.295398, "excess_performance": -0.73677, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.215302, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.087691, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.411478, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.105177, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.502418, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.056655, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.295398, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.776053, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 1196753, "relative_activity": 0.657823, "balance": 0.776053, "dry_up": 0.734041, "accumulation_observations": 4, "distribution_observations": 3 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.105685, "annualized_volatility": 0.34949, "from_high_reference": -0.484966, "from_low_reference": 0.095238 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 26.379574, "fair_value_reference": 35.172878, "structural_low": 18.9, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 35, "median_return": -0.011006, "positive_rate": 0.485714, "directional_follow_through": 0.514286, "median_excess_return": -0.027635, "regime_survival": 0.8, "best_return": 0.244898, "worst_return": -0.196787, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 12, "median_return": 0.002911, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.063022, "regime_survival": 0.666667, "best_return": 0.55902, "worst_return": -0.34717, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": 0.065722, "positive_rate": 0.571429, "directional_follow_through": 0.428571, "median_excess_return": -0.111065, "regime_survival": 0.428571, "best_return": 0.402041, "worst_return": -0.276101, "sufficient": true }, 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"energy": 72.13464, "activity_lines": [ 22.432845, 23.499771, 24.833614, 25.925729 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 19.450001, "volume": 1610719, "typical_volume": 1834812.25, "trend": 27.135879, "fair_value": 35.521653, "relative_strength": -52.085366, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -83.722344, "energy": 86.500466, "activity_lines": [ 21.266299, 22.617853, 24.224847, 25.407453 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 20.700001, "volume": 573732, "typical_volume": 1814840.95, "trend": 26.779122, "fair_value": 35.330482, "relative_strength": -49.379786, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -67.287616, "energy": 81.270134, "activity_lines": [ 20.780012, 22.080881, 23.77982, 24.992235 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-14", "close": 20.700001, "volume": 1196753, "typical_volume": 1819262.85, "trend": 26.379574, "fair_value": 35.172878, "relative_strength": -50.241764, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -65.971962, "energy": 76.469914, "activity_lines": [ 20.585902, 21.642447, 23.371886, 24.600033 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }