{ "ticker": { "uuid": "67922643-f54b-4121-9d54-a1eb5c7ad565", "symbol": "VALT", "name": "Valterra Platinum Limited", "exchange": "LSE", "country": "GB", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^FTSE", "stage": 3, "stage_name": "Distribution", "phase": "3a", "phase_label": "Stage 3A \u00b7 Churning", "transition": "stage_3_churning", "transition_label": "Stage 3 range intact", "confidence": 67.16, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Early contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -11.962, "architecture_energy": 11.468, "architecture_maturity": 57.989, "architecture_confidence": 58.28, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 50.18, "rotation_up": 30.45, "upward_expansion": 21.08, "deceleration": 43.22, "rotation_down": 21.25, "downward_expansion": 57.41 }, "activity_lines": [ 5678.866667, 5483.236364, 5657.942857, 5905.295037 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.166667 }, "latest_close": 6575.0, "trend_reference": 6249.365365, "distance_from_trend": 0.052107, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 3504.37131, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.876228, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": 6.962967, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.030904, "excess_performance": -0.020331, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.052107, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.010751, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.876228, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.141623, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": true, "value": 0.06963, "read": "Leading" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.157059, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.030904, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.924434, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 666055, "relative_activity": 1.696136, "balance": 0.924434, "dry_up": 1.108692, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.093448, "annualized_volatility": 0.690294, "from_high_reference": -0.252594, "from_low_reference": 0.969212 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 6249.365365, "fair_value_reference": 3504.37131, "structural_low": 4676.0, "invalidation": "A decisive breakout above range resistance with renewed RS leadership invalidates the distribution reading; a range-low break confirms deterioration." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 1, "median_return": -0.03235, "positive_rate": 0.0, "directional_follow_through": 1.0, "median_excess_return": -0.054067, "regime_survival": 1.0, "best_return": -0.03235, "worst_return": -0.03235, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 0, "median_return": null, "positive_rate": null, "directional_follow_through": null, "median_excess_return": null, "regime_survival": null, "best_return": null, "worst_return": null, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 0, "median_return": null, "positive_rate": null, "directional_follow_through": null, "median_excess_return": null, "regime_survival": null, "best_return": null, "worst_return": null, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 0, "median_return": null, "positive_rate": null, "directional_follow_through": null, "median_excess_return": null, "regime_survival": null, "best_return": null, "worst_return": null, "sufficient": false } ], "ledger": [ { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-06-06", "end": "2025-11-07", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.51627, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-11-14", "end": "2025-11-28", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.071283, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-12-05", "end": "2026-03-27", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.062622, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2026-04-03", "end": "2026-06-05", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.184615, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation 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"relative_strength": -8.552679, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -57.823763, "energy": 44.068729, "activity_lines": [ 5221.466667, 5263.309091, 5588.738353, 5884.034458 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 6575.0, "volume": 666055, "typical_volume": 392689.7, "trend": 6249.365365, "fair_value": 3504.37131, "relative_strength": 6.962967, "stage": 3, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -11.961894, "energy": 11.467898, "activity_lines": [ 5678.866667, 5483.236364, 5657.942857, 5905.295037 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }