{ "ticker": { "uuid": "6793cf70-fe08-4c1c-b054-c57f7262bd5b", "symbol": "300551", "name": "Shanghai Guao Electronic Technology Co., Ltd.", "exchange": "SHZ", "country": "CN", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "399001.SZ", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -64.845, "architecture_energy": 63.3, "architecture_maturity": 82.773, "architecture_confidence": 96, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 8.4, "rotation_up": 26.29, "upward_expansion": 12.0, "deceleration": 60.92, "rotation_down": 56.42, "downward_expansion": 85.33 }, "activity_lines": [ 9.304, 9.543091, 10.803905, 12.122301 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.666667 }, "latest_close": 9.99, "trend_reference": 13.914, "distance_from_trend": -0.282018, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 13.316538, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.249805, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -29.233217, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.404648, "excess_performance": -0.412048, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.282018, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.097743, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.249805, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.298553, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.292332, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.202566, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.404648, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.390947, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 49489810, "relative_activity": 1.088149, "balance": 0.390947, "dry_up": 1.476485, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 5 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.126896, "annualized_volatility": 0.543141, "from_high_reference": -0.524059, "from_low_reference": 0.333778 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 13.914, "fair_value_reference": 13.316538, "structural_low": 7.49, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 26, "median_return": -0.020053, "positive_rate": 0.423077, "directional_follow_through": 0.538462, "median_excess_return": -0.030351, "regime_survival": 0.807692, "best_return": 0.779487, "worst_return": -0.322364, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 8, "median_return": 0.051948, "positive_rate": 0.625, "directional_follow_through": 0.375, "median_excess_return": 0.005849, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 1.34, "worst_return": -0.502075, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": 0.230152, "positive_rate": 0.6, "directional_follow_through": 0.4, "median_excess_return": 0.176032, "regime_survival": 0.2, "best_return": 0.481667, "worst_return": -0.649123, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", 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"2026-07-17", "close": 8.81, "volume": 79011023, "typical_volume": 48756203.25, "trend": 14.684667, "fair_value": 13.612628, "relative_strength": -36.238655, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -83.036527, "energy": 87.804002, "activity_lines": [ 9.502667, 10.257273, 11.772095, 13.12157 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 8.39, "volume": 66330490, "typical_volume": 48063451.65, "trend": 14.398333, "fair_value": 13.5175, "relative_strength": -39.034538, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -81.66728, "energy": 77.943887, "activity_lines": [ 9.018667, 9.763091, 11.318286, 12.715462 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 9.35, "volume": 73775126, "typical_volume": 48688500.7, "trend": 14.135667, "fair_value": 13.415385, "relative_strength": -30.615335, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -67.55729, "energy": 66.646065, "activity_lines": [ 9.032667, 9.557636, 11.008429, 12.389763 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 9.99, "volume": 49489810, "typical_volume": 45480733.5, "trend": 13.914, "fair_value": 13.316538, "relative_strength": -29.233217, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -64.844869, "energy": 63.299791, "activity_lines": [ 9.304, 9.543091, 10.803905, 12.122301 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }