{ "ticker": { "uuid": "67952c65-a1f0-406c-ae8b-269e196f6c11", "symbol": "ESIGM", "name": "ESI S.p.A.", "exchange": "MIL", "country": "IT", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "FTSEMIB.MI", "stage": 1, "stage_name": "Basing", "phase": "1c", "phase_label": "Stage 1C \u00b7 Breakout watch", "transition": "stage_1_to_2_watch", "transition_label": "Stage 1 \u2192 2 watch", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "rotation_up", "architecture_regime_label": "Rotation Up", "architecture_modifier": "Structural repair", "architecture_gate": "mixed", "architecture_direction": 46.825, "architecture_energy": 67.164, "architecture_maturity": 11.555, "architecture_confidence": 70.169, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The Activity Line structure is rotating upward.", "body": "Fast Activity is improving relative to Slow Activity and price acceptance is strengthening. This is earlier than full positive Trend confirmation and remains a developing repair." }, "scores": { "balance": 15.59, "rotation_up": 76.64, "upward_expansion": 58.03, "deceleration": 15.07, "rotation_down": 14.22, "downward_expansion": 28.36 }, "activity_lines": [ 1.347333, 1.290636, 1.241833, 1.242699 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": 0.833333 }, "latest_close": 1.42, "trend_reference": 1.2685, "distance_from_trend": 0.119432, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 1.548462, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.082961, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -12.648617, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": 0.04797, "excess_performance": -0.122921, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.119432, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.049813, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.082961, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.184949, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.126486, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.163573, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.04797, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 2.886667, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 36000, "relative_activity": 0.917431, "balance": 2.886667, "dry_up": 1.267202, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.058776, "annualized_volatility": 0.378697, "from_high_reference": -0.228261, "from_low_reference": 0.327103 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 1.2685, "fair_value_reference": 1.548462, "structural_low": 1.07, "invalidation": "A renewed decline below the structural range low, widening the discount to current Fair Value while Trend falls, weakens the base diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": 0.025, "positive_rate": 0.6, "directional_follow_through": 0.6, "median_excess_return": -0.043683, "regime_survival": 0.4, "best_return": 0.235142, "worst_return": -0.066946, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": -0.103125, "positive_rate": 0.333333, "directional_follow_through": 0.333333, "median_excess_return": -0.118391, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.049096, "worst_return": -0.107784, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": -0.107784, "positive_rate": 0.0, "directional_follow_through": 0.0, "median_excess_return": -0.254732, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": -0.09375, "worst_return": -0.222222, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 2, "median_return": -0.150505, "positive_rate": 0.0, "directional_follow_through": 0.0, "median_excess_return": -0.378014, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": -0.096875, "worst_return": -0.204134, "sufficient": false } ], "ledger": [ { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2024-12-20", "end": "2024-12-27", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.049383, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-01-03", "end": "2025-01-10", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.103125, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-01-17", "end": "2025-02-14", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.188202, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-02-21", "end": "2025-06-20", "tenure": "Established", "return": -0.085443, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-06-27", "end": "2025-07-18", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.1875, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-07-25", "end": "2025-08-22", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.032934, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-08-29", "end": "2025-09-12", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.119741, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-09-19", "end": "2025-10-10", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.142857, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-10-17", "end": "2025-10-24", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.032468, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2025-10-31", "end": "2025-11-28", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.003378, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-12-05", "end": "2025-12-05", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.0, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-12-12", "end": "2026-07-10", "tenure": "Extended", "return": -0.105634, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2026-07-17", "end": "2026-07-31", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.026923, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2026-08-07", "end": "2026-08-07", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.0, "active": true } ], "chart_path": [ { "date": "2023-08-18", "close": 2.06, "volume": 18000, "typical_volume": 44235.0, "trend": 2.161167, "fair_value": 2.676545, "relative_strength": -19.737341, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -36.781693, "energy": 20.91188, "activity_lines": [ 2.056667, 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-23.247563, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -16.64206, "energy": 12.491693, "activity_lines": [ 1.21, 1.189364, 1.192667, 1.226172 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 1.3, "volume": 115200, "typical_volume": 50490.0, "trend": 1.276833, "fair_value": 1.561859, "relative_strength": -19.471079, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": 5.630858, "energy": 16.070201, "activity_lines": [ 1.245333, 1.211818, 1.200976, 1.227376 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 1.3, "volume": 15300, "typical_volume": 43155.0, "trend": 1.272167, "fair_value": 1.557532, "relative_strength": -18.545755, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": 7.360649, "energy": 24.708099, "activity_lines": [ 1.271667, 1.232182, 1.209667, 1.228871 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 1.335, "volume": 32400, "typical_volume": 39915.0, "trend": 1.2685, "fair_value": 1.552692, "relative_strength": -16.144369, "stage": 1, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 32.582471, "energy": 48.145215, "activity_lines": [ 1.301, 1.256, 1.221929, 1.232925 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 1.42, "volume": 36000, "typical_volume": 39240.0, "trend": 1.2685, "fair_value": 1.548462, "relative_strength": -12.648617, "stage": 1, "regime": "rotation_up", "modifier": "Structural repair", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 46.825393, "energy": 67.163768, "activity_lines": [ 1.347333, 1.290636, 1.241833, 1.242699 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }