{ "ticker": { "uuid": "679bff5e-dc2d-4ee6-9d81-019046d3479e", "symbol": "HTZ1", "name": "Hertz Global Holdings, Inc.", "exchange": "MEX", "country": "MX", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^MXX", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Early contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -68.47, "architecture_energy": 88.272, "architecture_maturity": 34.0, "architecture_confidence": 82.926, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 11.67, "rotation_up": 10.52, "upward_expansion": 21.85, "deceleration": 37.04, "rotation_down": 78.93, "downward_expansion": 97.52 }, "activity_lines": [ 34.085333, 41.191454, 62.062381, 70.147053 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.833333 }, "latest_close": 39.029999, "trend_reference": 78.746666, "distance_from_trend": -0.50436, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 113.640256, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.656548, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -57.563816, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.555518, "excess_performance": -0.500851, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.50436, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.165578, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.656548, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.433138, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.575638, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.443537, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.555518, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.502182, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 190342, "relative_activity": 8.531116, "balance": 1.502182, "dry_up": 3.056092, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 3 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.234652, "annualized_volatility": 1.230511, "from_high_reference": -0.70764, "from_low_reference": 0.501154 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 78.746666, "fair_value_reference": 113.640256, "structural_low": 26.0, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 20, "median_return": -0.02269, "positive_rate": 0.2, "directional_follow_through": 0.65, "median_excess_return": -0.038586, "regime_survival": 0.9, "best_return": 0.812445, "worst_return": -0.338521, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": -0.078092, "positive_rate": 0.333333, "directional_follow_through": 0.666667, "median_excess_return": -0.091849, "regime_survival": 0.666667, "best_return": 0.300813, "worst_return": -0.453333, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": -0.05, "positive_rate": 0.333333, "directional_follow_through": 0.666667, "median_excess_return": 0.073538, "regime_survival": 0.333333, "best_return": 0.178947, "worst_return": -0.4875, "sufficient": false }, { 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74.834, 85.018143, 86.588236 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-10", "close": 36.209999, "volume": 42922, "typical_volume": 13549.75, "trend": 87.006666, "fair_value": 120.986859, "relative_strength": -63.896177, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -90.974256, "energy": 96.518664, "activity_lines": [ 48.999333, 65.901818, 80.225524, 83.177505 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 32.84, "volume": 21930, "typical_volume": 13333.25, "trend": 85.098, "fair_value": 119.14609, "relative_strength": -66.424234, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -84.694676, "energy": 94.56116, "activity_lines": [ 40.224667, 57.734909, 75.314476, 79.682881 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 34.0, "volume": 29268, "typical_volume": 14192.75, "trend": 83.039333, "fair_value": 117.312756, "relative_strength": -64.201583, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -73.998602, "energy": 90.86381, "activity_lines": [ 35.480667, 51.064545, 70.724667, 76.386236 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 28.059999, "volume": 31204, "typical_volume": 15347.9, "trend": 80.758, "fair_value": 115.441346, "relative_strength": -70.004743, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -81.602387, "energy": 93.494107, "activity_lines": [ 32.29, 44.548182, 65.769619, 72.839183 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 39.029999, "volume": 190342, "typical_volume": 22311.5, "trend": 78.746666, "fair_value": 113.640256, "relative_strength": -57.563816, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -68.470004, "energy": 88.27228, "activity_lines": [ 34.085333, 41.191454, 62.062381, 70.147053 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }