{ "ticker": { "uuid": "679e15de-6765-432d-8c87-5c007ad58d5f", "symbol": "2743", "name": "Richmond International Travel & Tours Co.,Ltd", "exchange": "TWO", "country": "TW", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-14", "benchmark": "^TWII", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -79.449, "architecture_energy": 87.921, "architecture_maturity": 90.183, "architecture_confidence": 81.927, "architecture_tenure": "Extended", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 0.69, "rotation_up": 9.73, "upward_expansion": 20.63, "deceleration": 37.81, "rotation_down": 83.62, "downward_expansion": 98.63 }, "activity_lines": [ 57.6, 60.347273, 63.74381, 66.244946 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -1.0 }, "latest_close": 55.799999, "trend_reference": 69.95, "distance_from_trend": -0.202287, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 83.90691, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.334977, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -49.375167, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.309406, "excess_performance": -0.750778, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.202287, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.086815, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.334977, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.110358, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.493752, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.027759, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.309406, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.704203, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 513855, "relative_activity": 0.890562, "balance": 0.704203, "dry_up": 0.751101, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.070306, "annualized_volatility": 0.217869, "from_high_reference": -0.432927, "from_low_reference": 0.012704 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 69.95, "fair_value_reference": 83.90691, "structural_low": 55.099998, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 21, "median_return": 0.009091, "positive_rate": 0.52381, "directional_follow_through": 0.47619, "median_excess_return": -0.013941, "regime_survival": 0.809524, "best_return": 0.381748, "worst_return": -0.161261, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": -0.05668, "positive_rate": 0.428571, "directional_follow_through": 0.571429, "median_excess_return": 0.019983, "regime_survival": 0.428571, "best_return": 0.587404, "worst_return": -0.108303, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": 0.5086, "positive_rate": 0.6, "directional_follow_through": 0.4, "median_excess_return": 0.110564, "regime_survival": 0.2, "best_return": 1.2, "worst_return": -0.162727, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", 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"volume": 437616, "typical_volume": 571039.85, "trend": 71.606667, "fair_value": 84.574333, "relative_strength": -46.107663, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -81.952578, "energy": 89.155683, "activity_lines": [ 60.526666, 63.150909, 65.816667, 68.110538 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 57.700001, "volume": 471963, "typical_volume": 572654.7, "trend": 70.81, "fair_value": 84.207765, "relative_strength": -46.933217, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -77.058852, "energy": 88.687716, "activity_lines": [ 59.06, 61.829091, 64.836667, 67.213334 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-14", "close": 55.799999, "volume": 513855, "typical_volume": 577000.6, "trend": 69.95, "fair_value": 83.90691, "relative_strength": -49.375167, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -79.448683, "energy": 87.920759, "activity_lines": [ 57.6, 60.347273, 63.74381, 66.244946 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }