{ "ticker": { "uuid": "67a2bc53-f8b3-4f68-b257-cef980562e5f", "symbol": "ORTIN", "name": "Ortelius International AB", "exchange": "STO", "country": "SE", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^OMX", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -64.943, "architecture_energy": 58.655, "architecture_maturity": 100.0, "architecture_confidence": 91.088, "architecture_tenure": "Extended", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 11.05, "rotation_up": 18.62, "upward_expansion": 10.31, "deceleration": 44.0, "rotation_down": 67.07, "downward_expansion": 88.31 }, "activity_lines": [ 0.099573, 0.130711, 0.192239, 0.25654 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Stable", "price_acceptance": -1.0 }, "latest_close": 0.0954, "trend_reference": 0.368693, "distance_from_trend": -0.741248, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 6.533659, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.985399, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -95.480023, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.838305, "excess_performance": -0.899799, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.741248, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.560434, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.985399, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.010828, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.9548, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.003865, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.838305, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.67451, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 3174747, "relative_activity": 0.378994, "balance": 0.67451, "dry_up": 1.397305, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 3 }, "risk": { "range_context": 1.283261, "annualized_volatility": 1.805474, "from_high_reference": -0.993282, "from_low_reference": 0.53871 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 0.368693, "fair_value_reference": 6.533659, "structural_low": 0.062, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 38, "median_return": -0.117044, "positive_rate": 0.210526, "directional_follow_through": 0.789474, "median_excess_return": -0.129642, "regime_survival": 0.947368, "best_return": 0.513514, "worst_return": -0.401, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 13, "median_return": -0.406897, "positive_rate": 0.153846, "directional_follow_through": 0.846154, "median_excess_return": -0.399528, "regime_survival": 0.846154, "best_return": 0.675676, "worst_return": -0.729167, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": -0.498141, "positive_rate": 0.285714, "directional_follow_through": 0.714286, "median_excess_return": -0.579385, "regime_survival": 0.714286, "best_return": 0.391892, "worst_return": -0.897917, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": -0.651163, "positive_rate": 0.333333, "directional_follow_through": 0.666667, "median_excess_return": -0.795316, "regime_survival": 0.666667, "best_return": 0.233333, "worst_return": -0.840149, "sufficient": false } ], "ledger": [ { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2022-07-29", "end": "2023-08-18", "tenure": "Extended", "return": -0.821097, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2023-08-25", "end": "2024-02-16", "tenure": "Established", "return": -0.241206, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2024-02-23", "end": "2025-03-07", "tenure": "Extended", "return": -0.690722, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-03-14", "end": "2025-04-04", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.136364, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-04-11", "end": "2025-04-18", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.009132, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-04-25", "end": "2025-05-09", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.350211, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-05-16", "end": "2025-07-11", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.044118, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-07-18", "end": "2025-10-03", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.227273, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-10-10", "end": "2025-10-24", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.330882, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-10-31", "end": 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"activity_lines": [ 0.2011, 0.236909, 0.285512, 0.378468 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-10", "close": 0.155, "volume": 4947105, "typical_volume": 6479565.25, "trend": 0.522333, "fair_value": 7.002372, "relative_strength": -94.226312, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -66.665935, "energy": 51.323132, "activity_lines": [ 0.183967, 0.220145, 0.267464, 0.351339 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 0.1, "volume": 16967535, "typical_volume": 7199557.0, "trend": 0.483667, "fair_value": 6.884423, "relative_strength": -96.00579, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -70.150942, "energy": 54.13628, "activity_lines": [ 0.152133, 0.195018, 0.24606, 0.324091 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 0.08, "volume": 22597184, "typical_volume": 8172141.15, "trend": 0.441333, "fair_value": 6.774679, "relative_strength": -96.627846, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -69.901256, "energy": 57.386134, "activity_lines": [ 0.1216, 0.168082, 0.225036, 0.298048 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 0.1054, "volume": 4080167, "typical_volume": 8313081.85, "trend": 0.402847, "fair_value": 6.666381, "relative_strength": -95.233088, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -64.764102, "energy": 61.020605, "activity_lines": [ 0.108467, 0.148309, 0.208298, 0.276375 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 0.0954, "volume": 3174747, "typical_volume": 8376773.0, "trend": 0.368693, "fair_value": 6.533659, "relative_strength": -95.480023, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -64.942717, "energy": 58.654571, "activity_lines": [ 0.099573, 0.130711, 0.192239, 0.25654 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }