{
  "ticker": {
    "uuid": "67ac50ec-36bd-4695-b0e0-9511c5546dbc",
    "symbol": "SSO",
    "name": "SPDR ETFs Australia - State Street SPDR S&P/ASX Small Ordinaries ETF",
    "exchange": "ASX",
    "country": "AU",
    "assetType": "etf"
  },
  "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.",
  "analysis": {
    "eligible": true,
    "as_of": "2026-08-07",
    "benchmark": "^AXJO",
    "stage": 4,
    "stage_name": "Declining",
    "phase": "4b",
    "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining",
    "transition": "stage_4_declining",
    "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact",
    "confidence": 96.0,
    "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion",
    "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion",
    "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction",
    "architecture_gate": "down",
    "architecture_direction": -57.474,
    "architecture_energy": 48.711,
    "architecture_maturity": 57.781,
    "architecture_confidence": 94.713,
    "architecture_tenure": "Established",
    "architecture": {
      "interpretation": {
        "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.",
        "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation."
      },
      "scores": {
        "balance": 8.43,
        "rotation_up": 26.94,
        "upward_expansion": 9.34,
        "deceleration": 53.19,
        "rotation_down": 56.39,
        "downward_expansion": 82.67
      },
      "activity_lines": [
        14.402667,
        14.455845,
        14.648557,
        14.941262
      ],
      "activity_state": "Moderate",
      "activity_direction": "Contracting",
      "rotation_direction": "Improving",
      "price_acceptance": -0.666667
    },
    "latest_close": 15.0,
    "trend_reference": 15.488233,
    "distance_from_trend": -0.031523,
    "trend_direction": "Weakening",
    "fair_value": 14.239174,
    "distance_from_fair_value": 0.053432,
    "fair_value_direction": "Weakening",
    "relative_strength": -10.872606,
    "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening",
    "price_momentum": -0.074645,
    "excess_performance": -0.138351,
    "evidence": [
      {
        "label": "Price vs Trend",
        "positive": false,
        "value": -0.031523,
        "read": "Below"
      },
      {
        "label": "Trend direction",
        "positive": false,
        "value": -0.046291,
        "read": "Falling"
      },
      {
        "label": "Price vs current Fair Value",
        "positive": true,
        "value": 0.053432,
        "read": "Premium"
      },
      {
        "label": "Fair Value direction",
        "positive": false,
        "value": -0.00164,
        "read": "Moving away"
      },
      {
        "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark",
        "positive": false,
        "value": -0.108726,
        "read": "Lagging"
      },
      {
        "label": "Relative strength direction",
        "positive": false,
        "value": -0.034021,
        "read": "Weakening"
      },
      {
        "label": "Price momentum",
        "positive": false,
        "value": -0.074645,
        "read": "Negative"
      },
      {
        "label": "Volume balance",
        "positive": false,
        "value": 0.532908,
        "read": "Supply-led"
      }
    ],
    "volume": {
      "latest": 3070,
      "relative_activity": 0.284684,
      "balance": 0.532908,
      "dry_up": 1.433503,
      "accumulation_observations": 1,
      "distribution_observations": 3
    },
    "risk": {
      "range_context": 0.027947,
      "annualized_volatility": 0.209862,
      "from_high_reference": -0.176277,
      "from_low_reference": 0.076813
    },
    "levels": {
      "trend_reference": 15.488233,
      "fair_value_reference": 14.239174,
      "structural_low": 13.93,
      "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired."
    },
    "outcomes": [
      {
        "horizon": "Near term",
        "sample_count": 19,
        "median_return": 0.037893,
        "positive_rate": 0.684211,
        "directional_follow_through": 0.315789,
        "median_excess_return": -0.001316,
        "regime_survival": 0.684211,
        "best_return": 0.090837,
        "worst_return": -0.091511,
        "sufficient": true
      },
      {
        "horizon": "Intermediate",
        "sample_count": 8,
        "median_return": 0.037583,
        "positive_rate": 0.625,
        "directional_follow_through": 0.375,
        "median_excess_return": 0.003258,
        "regime_survival": 0.375,
        "best_return": 0.138552,
        "worst_return": -0.063037,
        "sufficient": true
      },
      {
        "horizon": "Extended",
        "sample_count": 4,
        "median_return": 0.049556,
        "positive_rate": 0.75,
        "directional_follow_through": 0.25,
        "median_excess_return": -0.015452,
        "regime_survival": 0.25,
        "best_return": 0.340282,
        "worst_return": -0.044842,
        "sufficient": false
      },
      {
        "horizon": "Full cycle",
        "sample_count": 3,
        "median_return": 0.095356,
        "positive_rate": 0.666667,
        "directional_follow_through": 0.333333,
        "median_excess_return": 0.01703,
        "regime_survival": 0.333333,
        "best_return": 0.188966,
        "worst_return": -0.009006,
        "sufficient": false
      }
    ],
    "ledger": [
      {
        "regime": "upward_expansion",
        "label": "Upward Expansion",
        "color": "green",
        "start": "2024-01-19",
        "end": "2024-05-03",
        "tenure": "Established",
        "return": 0.057751,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "deceleration",
        "label": "Deceleration",
        "color": "amber",
        "start": "2024-05-10",
        "end": "2024-08-02",
        "tenure": "Established",
        "return": -0.006307,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "balance",
        "label": "Balance",
        "color": "blue",
        "start": "2024-08-09",
        "end": "2024-10-11",
        "tenure": "Developing",
        "return": 0.092331,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "upward_expansion",
        "label": "Upward Expansion",
        "color": "green",
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        "end": "2024-12-20",
        "tenure": "Developing",
        "return": -0.048103,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "deceleration",
        "label": "Deceleration",
        "color": "amber",
        "start": "2024-12-27",
        "end": "2025-01-24",
        "tenure": "Developing",
        "return": 0.02399,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "upward_expansion",
        "label": "Upward Expansion",
        "color": "green",
        "start": "2025-01-31",
        "end": "2025-03-14",
        "tenure": "Developing",
        "return": -0.057182,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "deceleration",
        "label": "Deceleration",
        "color": "amber",
        "start": "2025-03-21",
        "end": "2025-03-28",
        "tenure": "New",
        "return": -0.004919,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "downward_expansion",
        "label": "Downward Expansion",
        "color": "red",
        "start": "2025-04-04",
        "end": "2025-05-16",
        "tenure": "Developing",
        "return": 0.105422,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "rotation_up",
        "label": "Rotation Up",
        "color": "teal",
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        "end": "2025-06-13",
        "tenure": "New",
        "return": 0.025921,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "upward_expansion",
        "label": "Upward Expansion",
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        "end": "2025-11-14",
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        "return": 0.144844,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "deceleration",
        "label": "Deceleration",
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        "return": 0.082099,
        "active": false
      },
      {
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        "active": false
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      {
        "regime": "rotation_down",
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        "return": -0.039591,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "downward_expansion",
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        "typical_volume": 15272.05,
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        "date": "2026-05-01",
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      {
        "date": "2026-05-08",
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        "date": "2026-05-15",
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-05-22",
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      },
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        "typical_volume": 11400.45,
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        "date": "2026-06-05",
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        "energy": 51.723334,
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-07-03",
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        "gate": "down",
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        "energy": 48.145943,
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      },
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        "date": "2026-07-10",
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        "fair_value": 14.189804,
        "relative_strength": -9.999492,
        "stage": 4,
        "regime": "downward_expansion",
        "modifier": "Established contraction",
        "gate": "down",
        "direction": -68.764367,
        "energy": 52.376163,
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-07-17",
        "close": 14.12,
        "volume": 3398,
        "typical_volume": 8519.5,
        "trend": 15.786853,
        "fair_value": 14.200783,
        "relative_strength": -12.040881,
        "stage": 4,
        "regime": "downward_expansion",
        "modifier": "Established contraction",
        "gate": "down",
        "direction": -79.860968,
        "energy": 76.120017,
        "activity_lines": [
          14.439125,
          14.575156,
          14.823942,
          15.197304
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-07-24",
        "close": 13.96,
        "volume": 30439,
        "typical_volume": 9800.2,
        "trend": 15.677233,
        "fair_value": 14.210496,
        "relative_strength": -12.663757,
        "stage": 4,
        "regime": "downward_expansion",
        "modifier": "Established contraction",
        "gate": "down",
        "direction": -79.992722,
        "energy": 81.456502,
        "activity_lines": [
          14.237284,
          14.451602,
          14.717624,
          15.079442
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-07-31",
        "close": 14.11,
        "volume": 24928,
        "typical_volume": 10713.5,
        "trend": 15.574566,
        "fair_value": 14.222434,
        "relative_strength": -13.605525,
        "stage": 4,
        "regime": "downward_expansion",
        "modifier": "Established contraction",
        "gate": "down",
        "direction": -71.757455,
        "energy": 86.694983,
        "activity_lines": [
          14.158667,
          14.369191,
          14.637019,
          14.978331
        ]
      },
      {
        "date": "2026-08-07",
        "close": 15.0,
        "volume": 3070,
        "typical_volume": 10783.9,
        "trend": 15.488233,
        "fair_value": 14.239174,
        "relative_strength": -10.872606,
        "stage": 4,
        "regime": "downward_expansion",
        "modifier": "Established contraction",
        "gate": "down",
        "direction": -57.473798,
        "energy": 48.711158,
        "activity_lines": [
          14.402667,
          14.455845,
          14.648557,
          14.941262
        ]
      }
    ],
    "method": {
      "price_basis": "completed market observations",
      "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.",
      "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.",
      "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.",
      "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read."
    }
  }
}