{ "ticker": { "uuid": "67ad19f6-79cd-44bd-a462-8f8d08ded358", "symbol": "688015", "name": "Traffic Control Technology Co., Ltd.", "exchange": "SHH", "country": "CN", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "000001.SS", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -63.956, "architecture_energy": 63.587, "architecture_maturity": 89.095, "architecture_confidence": 95.2, "architecture_tenure": "Established", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 11.21, "rotation_up": 27.4, "upward_expansion": 12.0, "deceleration": 60.14, "rotation_down": 52.91, "downward_expansion": 83.0 }, "activity_lines": [ 15.381333, 15.603454, 17.043957, 18.454508 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.5 }, "latest_close": 15.9, "trend_reference": 20.29159, "distance_from_trend": -0.216424, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 19.041594, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.164986, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -25.37967, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.341461, "excess_performance": -0.298257, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.216424, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.100413, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.164986, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.290121, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.253797, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.139447, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.341461, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.290036, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 8126331, "relative_activity": 1.180152, "balance": 0.290036, "dry_up": 1.057855, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 5 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.078305, "annualized_volatility": 0.323601, "from_high_reference": -0.411082, "from_low_reference": 0.105702 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 20.29159, "fair_value_reference": 19.041594, "structural_low": 14.38, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 25, "median_return": 0.001767, "positive_rate": 0.52, "directional_follow_through": 0.48, "median_excess_return": 0.004848, "regime_survival": 0.8, "best_return": 0.221989, "worst_return": -0.154539, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 9, "median_return": -0.030696, "positive_rate": 0.444444, "directional_follow_through": 0.555556, "median_excess_return": -0.04004, "regime_survival": 0.444444, "best_return": 0.469478, "worst_return": -0.227551, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": 0.112332, "positive_rate": 0.666667, "directional_follow_through": 0.333333, "median_excess_return": 0.13778, "regime_survival": 0.166667, "best_return": 0.254317, "worst_return": -0.253574, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": 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"activity_lines": [ 15.381333, 15.603454, 17.043957, 18.454508 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }