{ "ticker": { "uuid": "67b7cf46-a39d-43ec-8efd-9e67dedb212e", "symbol": "PGR", "name": "The Progressive Corporation", "exchange": "MEX", "country": "MX", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^MXX", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4c", "phase_label": "Stage 4C \u00b7 Repair watch", "transition": "stage_4_to_1_watch", "transition_label": "Stage 4 \u2192 1 repair watch", "confidence": 51.755, "architecture_regime": "rotation_up", "architecture_regime_label": "Rotation Up", "architecture_modifier": "Emerging rotation", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 37.649, "architecture_energy": 26.297, "architecture_maturity": 67.117, "architecture_confidence": 74.268, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The Activity Line structure is rotating upward.", "body": "Fast Activity is improving relative to Slow Activity and price acceptance is strengthening. This is earlier than full positive Trend confirmation and remains a developing repair." }, "scores": { "balance": 52.94, "rotation_up": 27.19, "upward_expansion": 63.28, "deceleration": 88.31, "rotation_down": 30.85, "downward_expansion": 15.62 }, "activity_lines": [ 3699.006006, 3736.435731, 3641.130069, 3615.236349 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": 0.333333 }, "latest_close": 3642.0, "trend_reference": 3589.123788, "distance_from_trend": 0.014732, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 4032.714287, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.096886, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -8.420568, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": 0.037598, "excess_performance": 0.092264, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.014732, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.032816, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.096886, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.047587, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.084206, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.20489, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.037598, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.816985, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 578, "relative_activity": 0.505886, "balance": 0.816985, "dry_up": 0.570653, "accumulation_observations": 0, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.035486, "annualized_volatility": 0.245795, "from_high_reference": -0.238696, "from_low_reference": 0.087841 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 3589.123788, "fair_value_reference": 4032.714287, "structural_low": 3347.915527, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": -2.5e-05, "positive_rate": 0.4, "directional_follow_through": 0.4, "median_excess_return": 0.004234, "regime_survival": 0.6, "best_return": 0.170354, "worst_return": -0.051313, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 2, "median_return": 0.088605, "positive_rate": 1.0, "directional_follow_through": 1.0, "median_excess_return": 0.016608, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.097118, "worst_return": 0.080091, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 2, "median_return": 0.257882, "positive_rate": 1.0, "directional_follow_through": 1.0, "median_excess_return": 0.228163, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.40626, "worst_return": 0.109504, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", 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3756.674674, 3741.008912, 3635.998068, 3612.323672 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 3642.0, "volume": 578, "typical_volume": 1142.55, "trend": 3589.123788, "fair_value": 4032.714287, "relative_strength": -8.420568, "stage": 4, "regime": "rotation_up", "modifier": "Emerging rotation", "gate": "up", "direction": 37.64878, "energy": 26.296591, "activity_lines": [ 3699.006006, 3736.435731, 3641.130069, 3615.236349 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }