{ "ticker": { "uuid": "67c8d8e5-31d8-4977-b417-23a68c86e4a4", "symbol": "601519", "name": "Shanghai DZH Limited", "exchange": "SHH", "country": "CN", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "000001.SS", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -60.938, "architecture_energy": 52.389, "architecture_maturity": 85.474, "architecture_confidence": 92.397, "architecture_tenure": "Established", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 16.58, "rotation_up": 23.29, "upward_expansion": 8.28, "deceleration": 58.51, "rotation_down": 53.15, "downward_expansion": 79.28 }, "activity_lines": [ 8.098667, 8.241455, 8.904952, 9.496925 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.5 }, "latest_close": 8.28, "trend_reference": 10.464333, "distance_from_trend": -0.208741, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 9.400385, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.119185, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -31.498141, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.347518, "excess_performance": -0.304314, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.208741, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.132095, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.119185, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.319931, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.314981, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.123304, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.347518, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.170824, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 162559921, "relative_activity": 1.140396, "balance": 0.170824, "dry_up": 1.258761, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 8 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.111297, "annualized_volatility": 0.34059, "from_high_reference": -0.56283, "from_low_reference": 0.117409 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 10.464333, "fair_value_reference": 9.400385, "structural_low": 7.41, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 25, "median_return": -0.01895, "positive_rate": 0.36, "directional_follow_through": 0.64, "median_excess_return": -0.017307, "regime_survival": 0.92, "best_return": 0.319444, "worst_return": -0.177358, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": -0.083439, "positive_rate": 0.142857, "directional_follow_through": 0.857143, "median_excess_return": -0.079923, "regime_survival": 0.714286, "best_return": 0.478799, "worst_return": -0.142069, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": -0.127656, "positive_rate": 0.25, "directional_follow_through": 0.75, "median_excess_return": -0.067168, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 0.519435, "worst_return": -0.213654, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full 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10.776667, "fair_value": 9.383205, "relative_strength": -36.33716, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -76.319983, "energy": 68.445664, "activity_lines": [ 7.978667, 8.366545, 9.152286, 9.800409 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 8.41, "volume": 161811603, "typical_volume": 141145297.4, "trend": 10.617333, "fair_value": 9.391859, "relative_strength": -29.166709, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -63.834326, "energy": 57.597449, "activity_lines": [ 8.052667, 8.296727, 9.028095, 9.64772 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 8.28, "volume": 162559921, "typical_volume": 142546912.65, "trend": 10.464333, "fair_value": 9.400385, "relative_strength": -31.498141, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -60.938344, "energy": 52.388502, "activity_lines": [ 8.098667, 8.241455, 8.904952, 9.496925 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }