{ "ticker": { "uuid": "67cc8bb7-df89-44bb-9f64-438a60dead25", "symbol": "ALI2S", "name": "i2S SA", "exchange": "PAR", "country": "FR", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^FCHI", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 66.513, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Early contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -13.948, "architecture_energy": 14.154, "architecture_maturity": 61.201, "architecture_confidence": 57.468, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 46.11, "rotation_up": 36.77, "upward_expansion": 21.17, "deceleration": 41.16, "rotation_down": 25.33, "downward_expansion": 57.5 }, "activity_lines": [ 6.206667, 6.149091, 6.204891, 6.229092 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.166667 }, "latest_close": 6.4, "trend_reference": 6.275283, "distance_from_trend": 0.019874, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 6.644479, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.036794, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -7.264326, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.009464, "excess_performance": -0.043848, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.019874, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.02709, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.036794, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.032839, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.072643, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.047135, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.009464, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 2.604288, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 677, "relative_activity": 2.803893, "balance": 2.604288, "dry_up": 2.799752, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.045447, "annualized_volatility": 0.295704, "from_high_reference": -0.108077, "from_low_reference": 0.132355 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 6.275283, "fair_value_reference": 6.644479, "structural_low": 5.651938, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 17, "median_return": 0.007299, "positive_rate": 0.529412, "directional_follow_through": 0.411765, "median_excess_return": -0.006644, "regime_survival": 0.764706, "best_return": 0.09901, "worst_return": -0.096491, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": -0.030588, "positive_rate": 0.333333, "directional_follow_through": 0.666667, "median_excess_return": -0.009406, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 0.153846, "worst_return": -0.12605, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": -0.060577, "positive_rate": 0.333333, "directional_follow_through": 0.666667, "median_excess_return": -0.044739, "regime_survival": 0.666667, "best_return": 0.008403, "worst_return": -0.066177, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": 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"2026-07-10", "close": 5.85, "volume": 95, "typical_volume": 143.1, "trend": 6.315162, "fair_value": 6.632644, "relative_strength": -12.849074, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -74.087711, "energy": 74.136396, "activity_lines": [ 5.976667, 6.098459, 6.211259, 6.244802 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 6.4, "volume": 1792, "typical_volume": 195.85, "trend": 6.299141, "fair_value": 6.637406, "relative_strength": -4.383189, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -41.134425, "energy": 36.654895, "activity_lines": [ 6.1, 6.133716, 6.225203, 6.250275 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 6.15, "volume": 61, "typical_volume": 198.9, "trend": 6.294446, "fair_value": 6.640566, "relative_strength": -8.072411, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -49.605922, "energy": 27.600933, "activity_lines": [ 6.126667, 6.126912, 6.214583, 6.240653 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 6.0, "volume": 174, "typical_volume": 207.6, "trend": 6.284751, "fair_value": 6.641241, "relative_strength": -11.376876, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -48.472326, "energy": 25.668638, "activity_lines": [ 6.1, 6.097199, 6.190114, 6.221656 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 6.4, "volume": 677, "typical_volume": 241.45, "trend": 6.275283, "fair_value": 6.644479, "relative_strength": -7.264326, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -13.948307, "energy": 14.153711, "activity_lines": [ 6.206667, 6.149091, 6.204891, 6.229092 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }