{ "ticker": { "uuid": "67d0d4ce-eac4-455a-9a3b-418a5a493b16", "symbol": "ELIC", "name": "Elicera Therapeutics AB (publ)", "exchange": "STO", "country": "SE", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^OMX", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -64.364, "architecture_energy": 79.902, "architecture_maturity": 77.0, "architecture_confidence": 90.506, "architecture_tenure": "Established", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 11.38, "rotation_up": 29.51, "upward_expansion": 19.68, "deceleration": 38.64, "rotation_down": 51.55, "downward_expansion": 90.68 }, "activity_lines": [ 2.522, 2.604727, 2.864698, 3.403878 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.5 }, "latest_close": 2.53, "trend_reference": 4.113722, "distance_from_trend": -0.384985, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 3.573594, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.292029, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -54.923648, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.519924, "excess_performance": -0.581418, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.384985, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.195185, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.292029, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.172912, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.549236, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.050274, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.519924, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.581439, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 1081172, "relative_activity": 1.011056, "balance": 1.581439, "dry_up": 1.03382, "accumulation_observations": 4, "distribution_observations": 3 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.122378, "annualized_volatility": 0.868065, "from_high_reference": -0.699881, "from_low_reference": 0.126949 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 4.113722, "fair_value_reference": 3.573594, "structural_low": 2.245, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 17, "median_return": -0.031579, "positive_rate": 0.235294, "directional_follow_through": 0.705882, "median_excess_return": -0.021059, "regime_survival": 0.823529, "best_return": 0.545064, "worst_return": -0.342561, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": -0.10042, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.086367, "regime_survival": 0.666667, "best_return": 0.841564, "worst_return": -0.468142, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": -0.203857, "positive_rate": 0.333333, "directional_follow_through": 0.666667, "median_excess_return": -0.173161, "regime_survival": 0.666667, "best_return": 0.038062, "worst_return": -0.5, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full 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"regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -76.970724, "energy": 67.277907, "activity_lines": [ 2.664, 2.699727, 3.076762, 3.637842 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 2.39, "volume": 1331292, "typical_volume": 1033682.3, "trend": 4.226722, "fair_value": 3.575132, "relative_strength": -57.328749, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -78.725582, "energy": 83.215496, "activity_lines": [ 2.562667, 2.633909, 2.956563, 3.513344 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 2.53, "volume": 1081172, "typical_volume": 1069349.6, "trend": 4.113722, "fair_value": 3.573594, "relative_strength": -54.923648, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -64.363872, "energy": 79.9018, "activity_lines": [ 2.522, 2.604727, 2.864698, 3.403878 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }