{ "ticker": { "uuid": "67d3440d-6b90-4f1f-9167-d5e0367a56ad", "symbol": "USO", "name": "United States Oil Fund", "exchange": "NYSE", "country": "US", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "SPY", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2b", "phase_label": "Stage 2B \u00b7 Advancing", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 91.783, "architecture_regime": "deceleration", "architecture_regime_label": "Deceleration", "architecture_modifier": "Recompressing", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 28.09, "architecture_energy": 25.314, "architecture_maturity": 41.397, "architecture_confidence": 57.522, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The upward structure remains, but its energy is decelerating.", "body": "Trend remains positive, but Activity or price acceptance is losing strength. This can become a healthy recompression, a re-acceleration, or a Rotation Down." }, "scores": { "balance": 41.62, "rotation_up": 56.7, "upward_expansion": 66.74, "deceleration": 64.92, "rotation_down": 16.11, "downward_expansion": 14.74 }, "activity_lines": [ 124.884667, 120.474182, 124.078524, 121.975871 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": 0.0 }, "latest_close": 117.98, "trend_reference": 114.017, "distance_from_trend": 0.034758, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 81.508526, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.447456, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": 10.342736, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.532407, "excess_performance": 0.406782, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.034758, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.170918, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.447456, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.294098, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": true, "value": 0.103427, "read": "Leading" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.323036, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.532407, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.681971, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 30114789, "relative_activity": 0.436399, "balance": 0.681971, "dry_up": 0.524504, "accumulation_observations": 0, "distribution_observations": 0 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.117102, "annualized_volatility": 0.665882, "from_high_reference": -0.234294, "from_low_reference": 0.787982 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 114.017, "fair_value_reference": 81.508526, "structural_low": 75.18, "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 15, "median_return": 0.028885, "positive_rate": 0.533333, "directional_follow_through": 0.533333, "median_excess_return": 0.029961, "regime_survival": 0.466667, "best_return": 0.139993, "worst_return": -0.089127, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": -0.026122, "positive_rate": 0.333333, "directional_follow_through": 0.333333, "median_excess_return": -0.01993, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.655417, "worst_return": -0.098063, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": -0.009423, "positive_rate": 0.4, "directional_follow_through": 0.4, "median_excess_return": -0.180948, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.386043, "worst_return": -0.174561, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", 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"Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-02-21", "end": "2025-04-04", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.098607, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-04-11", "end": "2025-06-20", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.250677, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-06-27", "end": "2025-07-18", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.036163, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-07-25", "end": "2025-10-17", "tenure": "Established", "return": -0.091784, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2025-10-24", "end": "2025-10-31", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.008472, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-11-07", "end": "2025-12-12", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.034381, "active": 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80.459103, "relative_strength": 23.169642, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 1.54408, "energy": 20.392873, "activity_lines": [ 112.824667, 117.343455, 123.483, 118.569634 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 136.69, "volume": 41252372, "typical_volume": 107656992.55, "trend": 110.436667, "fair_value": 80.873205, "relative_strength": 35.347292, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 39.822447, "energy": 17.073792, "activity_lines": [ 121.255333, 119.765636, 124.617571, 120.410086 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 129.17, "volume": 33896632, "typical_volume": 83678838.4, "trend": 112.443667, "fair_value": 81.228205, "relative_strength": 25.684146, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 37.850676, "energy": 26.162128, "activity_lines": [ 125.724667, 121.030364, 124.903, 121.618688 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 117.98, "volume": 30114789, "typical_volume": 69007515.6, "trend": 114.017, "fair_value": 81.508526, "relative_strength": 10.342736, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 28.089544, "energy": 25.314329, "activity_lines": [ 124.884667, 120.474182, 124.078524, 121.975871 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }