{ "ticker": { "uuid": "67d38f0d-9b2a-4ba9-9ca0-eb9b1ea418d6", "symbol": "NK", "name": "Imerys S.A.", "exchange": "PAR", "country": "FR", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^FCHI", "stage": 1, "stage_name": "Basing", "phase": "1c", "phase_label": "Stage 1C \u00b7 Breakout watch", "transition": "stage_1_to_2_watch", "transition_label": "Stage 1 \u2192 2 watch", "confidence": 50.108, "architecture_regime": "balance", "architecture_regime_label": "Balance", "architecture_modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "architecture_gate": "mixed", "architecture_direction": 49.013, "architecture_energy": 59.475, "architecture_maturity": 33.224, "architecture_confidence": 67.239, "architecture_tenure": "Established", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "Directional pressure has compressed into balance.", "body": "Trend and Activity are compressed into balance, so neither side has durable control. Prior structure and the next directional change provide context; balance alone is not assumed to be a base." }, "scores": { "balance": 27.43, "rotation_up": 65.41, "upward_expansion": 56.88, "deceleration": 27.06, "rotation_down": 22.65, "downward_expansion": 24.54 }, "activity_lines": [ 23.16, 22.602546, 22.252323, 22.115273 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": 0.166667 }, "latest_close": 24.42, "trend_reference": 22.397625, "distance_from_trend": 0.090294, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 25.315394, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.03537, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": 2.956988, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": -0.072713, "excess_performance": -0.126024, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.090294, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.003962, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.03537, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.121746, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": true, "value": 0.02957, "read": "Leading" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.099763, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.072713, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.825613, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 225020, "relative_activity": 0.762269, "balance": 1.825613, "dry_up": 0.954121, "accumulation_observations": 3, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.047437, "annualized_volatility": 0.341969, "from_high_reference": -0.114301, "from_low_reference": 0.284443 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 22.397625, "fair_value_reference": 25.315394, "structural_low": 19.012128, "invalidation": "A renewed decline below the structural range low, widening the discount to current Fair Value while Trend falls, weakens the base diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 16, "median_return": -0.012669, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.010122, "regime_survival": 0.5625, "best_return": 0.155156, "worst_return": -0.226174, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 8, "median_return": -0.02726, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.085051, "regime_survival": 0.125, "best_return": 0.110138, "worst_return": -0.197173, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": -0.019164, "positive_rate": 0.428571, "directional_follow_through": 0.428571, "median_excess_return": -0.176378, "regime_survival": 0.285714, "best_return": 0.3206, "worst_return": -0.227451, 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"date": "2026-07-10", "close": 21.139999, "volume": 244889, "typical_volume": 336938.2, "trend": 22.407593, "fair_value": 25.452875, "relative_strength": -7.64328, "stage": 1, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "down", "direction": -42.323912, "energy": 23.172768, "activity_lines": [ 21.698667, 21.914752, 21.692244, 21.961714 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 22.120001, "volume": 222128, "typical_volume": 323935.95, "trend": 22.401058, "fair_value": 25.410346, "relative_strength": -2.978856, "stage": 1, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "down", "direction": -24.534215, "energy": 16.930525, "activity_lines": [ 21.772, 21.945809, 21.748913, 21.94316 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 21.76, "volume": 258316, "typical_volume": 313403.45, "trend": 22.37737, "fair_value": 25.36653, "relative_strength": -4.513569, "stage": 1, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "down", "direction": -30.401339, "energy": 18.504214, "activity_lines": [ 21.737333, 21.906546, 21.778671, 21.901802 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 23.66, "volume": 421153, "typical_volume": 310878.95, "trend": 22.39383, "fair_value": 25.335461, "relative_strength": 2.151916, "stage": 1, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "down", "direction": 19.589182, "energy": 16.524753, "activity_lines": [ 22.376, 22.200364, 21.986141, 21.984552 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 24.42, "volume": 225020, "typical_volume": 295197.65, "trend": 22.397625, "fair_value": 25.315394, "relative_strength": 2.956988, "stage": 1, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 49.012774, "energy": 59.474609, "activity_lines": [ 23.16, 22.602546, 22.252323, 22.115273 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }