{ "ticker": { "uuid": "67db6d76-43e1-4ebc-8ca2-d58d3de0c63b", "symbol": "ASMB", "name": "Assembly Biosciences Inc", "exchange": "NASDAQ", "country": "US", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "QQQ", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 92.662, "architecture_regime": "balance", "architecture_regime_label": "Balance", "architecture_modifier": "Balance after decline", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -41.019, "architecture_energy": 20.392, "architecture_maturity": 12.838, "architecture_confidence": 92.963, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "Directional pressure has compressed into balance.", "body": "Trend and Activity are compressed into balance, so neither side has durable control. Prior structure and the next directional change provide context; balance alone is not assumed to be a base." }, "scores": { "balance": 44.63, "rotation_up": 25.38, "upward_expansion": 5.98, "deceleration": 46.16, "rotation_down": 38.21, "downward_expansion": 69.98 }, "activity_lines": [ 26.100667, 26.128364, 26.480524, 26.903828 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": 0.0 }, "latest_close": 26.68, "trend_reference": 27.326667, "distance_from_trend": -0.023664, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 18.538467, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.43917, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -18.400568, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.017544, "excess_performance": -0.16991, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.023664, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.102224, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.43917, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.266669, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.184006, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.135124, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.017544, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.918597, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 617437, "relative_activity": 0.753302, "balance": 0.918597, "dry_up": 0.837252, "accumulation_observations": 3, "distribution_observations": 4 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.125302, "annualized_volatility": 0.405238, "from_high_reference": -0.328044, "from_low_reference": 0.318833 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 27.326667, "fair_value_reference": 18.538467, "structural_low": 21.795, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 14, "median_return": -0.072421, "positive_rate": 0.285714, "directional_follow_through": 0.285714, "median_excess_return": -0.083752, "regime_survival": 0.428571, "best_return": 0.306923, "worst_return": -0.386569, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": -0.141251, "positive_rate": 0.428571, "directional_follow_through": 0.428571, "median_excess_return": -0.140591, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.507202, "worst_return": -0.386905, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": -0.1, "positive_rate": 0.4, "directional_follow_through": 0.4, "median_excess_return": -0.142162, "regime_survival": 0.4, "best_return": 0.202862, "worst_return": -0.345238, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": 0.195719, "positive_rate": 0.666667, "directional_follow_through": 0.666667, "median_excess_return": -0.135769, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.843846, "worst_return": -0.517327, "sufficient": false } ], "ledger": [ { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2024-02-09", "end": "2024-03-01", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.111386, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2024-03-08", "end": "2024-08-02", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.052283, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2024-08-09", "end": "2024-09-06", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.306923, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2024-09-13", "end": "2024-10-18", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.009408, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2024-10-25", "end": "2025-01-31", "tenure": "Established", "return": -0.171496, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-02-07", "end": "2025-05-30", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.06471, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-06-06", "end": "2025-07-04", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.116995, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-07-11", "end": "2025-12-26", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.793067, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2026-01-02", "end": "2026-02-06", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.222996, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2026-02-13", "end": "2026-02-27", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.11928, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2026-03-06", "end": "2026-03-13", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.005483, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2026-03-20", "end": "2026-06-05", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.195362, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2026-06-12", "end": "2026-07-10", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.19338, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2026-07-17", "end": "2026-08-07", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.004849, "active": true } ], "chart_path": [ { "date": "2023-08-18", "close": 11.16, "volume": 492163, "typical_volume": 658912.8, "trend": 13.75656, "fair_value": 42.768569, "relative_strength": -40.148602, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", 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[ 25.853333, 26.112, 26.990714, 27.467591 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-10", "close": 27.4, "volume": 842282, "typical_volume": 765797.05, "trend": 28.333833, "fair_value": 18.206223, "relative_strength": -16.206916, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -30.196383, "energy": 14.47775, "activity_lines": [ 26.668, 26.247636, 26.970643, 27.388634 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 26.81, "volume": 964944, "typical_volume": 787486.45, "trend": 28.052167, "fair_value": 18.294236, "relative_strength": -14.640242, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -25.661854, "energy": 16.55158, "activity_lines": [ 26.986, 26.275455, 26.90081, 27.290323 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 25.55, "volume": 686662, "typical_volume": 799689.3, "trend": 27.783167, "fair_value": 18.371864, "relative_strength": -17.489205, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -31.232936, "energy": 16.252992, "activity_lines": [ 26.627333, 26.127455, 26.725405, 27.128892 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 25.11, "volume": 475942, "typical_volume": 803768.75, "trend": 27.495333, "fair_value": 18.44821, "relative_strength": -19.461282, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -37.768439, "energy": 17.903096, "activity_lines": [ 26.048, 25.955818, 26.521048, 26.95643 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 26.68, "volume": 617437, "typical_volume": 819640.8, "trend": 27.326667, "fair_value": 18.538467, "relative_strength": -18.400568, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -41.018532, "energy": 20.392497, "activity_lines": [ 26.100667, 26.128364, 26.480524, 26.903828 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }