{
  "ticker": {
    "uuid": "67de55d4-f03e-4fa1-b40d-f65a72da04b0",
    "symbol": "XPHG",
    "name": "Xtrackers MSCI Philippines UCITS ETF 1C",
    "exchange": "LSE",
    "country": "GB",
    "assetType": "etf"
  },
  "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.",
  "analysis": {
    "eligible": true,
    "as_of": "2026-08-07",
    "benchmark": "^FTSE",
    "stage": 1,
    "stage_name": "Basing",
    "phase": "1c",
    "phase_label": "Stage 1C \u00b7 Breakout watch",
    "transition": "stage_1_to_2_watch",
    "transition_label": "Stage 1 \u2192 2 watch",
    "confidence": 77.417,
    "architecture_regime": "rotation_up",
    "architecture_regime_label": "Rotation Up",
    "architecture_modifier": "Emerging rotation",
    "architecture_gate": "mixed",
    "architecture_direction": 42.184,
    "architecture_energy": 51.882,
    "architecture_maturity": 12.935,
    "architecture_confidence": 57.264,
    "architecture_tenure": "Developing",
    "architecture": {
      "interpretation": {
        "headline": "The Activity Line structure is rotating upward.",
        "body": "Fast Activity is improving relative to Slow Activity and price acceptance is strengthening. This is earlier than full positive Trend confirmation and remains a developing repair."
      },
      "scores": {
        "balance": 17.92,
        "rotation_up": 70.63,
        "upward_expansion": 61.27,
        "deceleration": 21.77,
        "rotation_down": 18.64,
        "downward_expansion": 17.27
      },
      "activity_lines": [
        117.973333,
        116.81,
        114.427143,
        114.175269
      ],
      "activity_state": "Wide",
      "activity_direction": "Expanding",
      "rotation_direction": "Improving",
      "price_acceptance": 1.0
    },
    "latest_close": 118.9,
    "trend_reference": 114.691667,
    "distance_from_trend": 0.036693,
    "trend_direction": "Improving",
    "fair_value": 118.973526,
    "distance_from_fair_value": -0.000618,
    "fair_value_direction": "Improving",
    "relative_strength": -4.831806,
    "relative_strength_direction": "Improving",
    "price_momentum": -0.002098,
    "excess_performance": -0.053334,
    "evidence": [
      {
        "label": "Price vs Trend",
        "positive": true,
        "value": 0.036693,
        "read": "Above"
      },
      {
        "label": "Trend direction",
        "positive": true,
        "value": 0.009891,
        "read": "Rising"
      },
      {
        "label": "Price vs current Fair Value",
        "positive": false,
        "value": -0.000618,
        "read": "Below anchor"
      },
      {
        "label": "Fair Value direction",
        "positive": true,
        "value": 0.072996,
        "read": "Closing upward"
      },
      {
        "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark",
        "positive": false,
        "value": -0.048318,
        "read": "Lagging"
      },
      {
        "label": "Relative strength direction",
        "positive": true,
        "value": 0.059993,
        "read": "Improving"
      },
      {
        "label": "Price momentum",
        "positive": false,
        "value": -0.002098,
        "read": "Negative"
      },
      {
        "label": "Volume balance",
        "positive": true,
        "value": 1.089376,
        "read": "Demand-led"
      }
    ],
    "volume": {
      "latest": 117907,
      "relative_activity": 0.512805,
      "balance": 1.089376,
      "dry_up": 0.581488,
      "accumulation_observations": 2,
      "distribution_observations": 2
    },
    "risk": {
      "range_context": 0.031527,
      "annualized_volatility": 0.196229,
      "from_high_reference": -0.200726,
      "from_low_reference": 0.136711
    },
    "levels": {
      "trend_reference": 114.691667,
      "fair_value_reference": 118.973526,
      "structural_low": 106.0,
      "invalidation": "A renewed decline below the structural range low, widening the discount to current Fair Value while Trend falls, weakens the base diagnosis."
    },
    "outcomes": [
      {
        "horizon": "Near term",
        "sample_count": 10,
        "median_return": -0.008201,
        "positive_rate": 0.5,
        "directional_follow_through": 0.5,
        "median_excess_return": -0.010104,
        "regime_survival": 0.3,
        "best_return": 0.060259,
        "worst_return": -0.13209,
        "sufficient": true
      },
      {
        "horizon": "Intermediate",
        "sample_count": 7,
        "median_return": -0.052163,
        "positive_rate": 0.285714,
        "directional_follow_through": 0.285714,
        "median_excess_return": -0.050108,
        "regime_survival": 0.0,
        "best_return": 0.071606,
        "worst_return": -0.074136,
        "sufficient": true
      },
      {
        "horizon": "Extended",
        "sample_count": 5,
        "median_return": -0.04553,
        "positive_rate": 0.2,
        "directional_follow_through": 0.2,
        "median_excess_return": -0.102113,
        "regime_survival": 0.0,
        "best_return": 0.043567,
        "worst_return": -0.144763,
        "sufficient": true
      },
      {
        "horizon": "Full cycle",
        "sample_count": 4,
        "median_return": -0.056341,
        "positive_rate": 0.0,
        "directional_follow_through": 0.0,
        "median_excess_return": -0.108888,
        "regime_survival": 0.0,
        "best_return": -0.000814,
        "worst_return": -0.127141,
        "sufficient": false
      }
    ],
    "ledger": [
      {
        "regime": "deceleration",
        "label": "Deceleration",
        "color": "amber",
        "start": "2025-01-10",
        "end": "2025-01-17",
        "tenure": "New",
        "return": 0.000409,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "downward_expansion",
        "label": "Downward Expansion",
        "color": "red",
        "start": "2025-01-24",
        "end": "2025-05-09",
        "tenure": "Established",
        "return": 0.047116,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "rotation_up",
        "label": "Rotation Up",
        "color": "teal",
        "start": "2025-05-16",
        "end": "2025-06-13",
        "tenure": "Developing",
        "return": -0.020623,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "balance",
        "label": "Balance",
        "color": "blue",
        "start": "2025-06-20",
        "end": "2025-09-26",
        "tenure": "Established",
        "return": -0.040017,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "downward_expansion",
        "label": "Downward Expansion",
        "color": "red",
        "start": "2025-10-03",
        "end": "2025-10-17",
        "tenure": "New",
        "return": -0.003102,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "upward_expansion",
        "label": "Upward Expansion",
        "color": "green",
        "start": "2025-10-24",
        "end": "2025-10-31",
        "tenure": "New",
        "return": -0.244084,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "balance",
        "label": "Balance",
        "color": "blue",
        "start": "2025-11-07",
        "end": "2026-02-06",
        "tenure": "Established",
        "return": 0.101202,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "rotation_up",
        "label": "Rotation Up",
        "color": "teal",
        "start": "2026-02-13",
        "end": "2026-02-27",
        "tenure": "New",
        "return": 0.047897,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "upward_expansion",
        "label": "Upward Expansion",
        "color": "green",
        "start": "2026-03-06",
        "end": "2026-03-13",
        "tenure": "New",
        "return": -0.044782,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "balance",
        "label": "Balance",
        "color": "blue",
        "start": "2026-03-20",
        "end": "2026-03-27",
        "tenure": "New",
        "return": -0.00907,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "rotation_down",
        "label": "Rotation Down",
        "color": "orange",
        "start": "2026-04-03",
        "end": "2026-04-10",
        "tenure": "New",
        "return": 0.021001,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "downward_expansion",
        "label": "Downward Expansion",
        "color": "red",
        "start": "2026-04-17",
        "end": "2026-06-19",
        "tenure": "Developing",
        "return": 0.035714,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "balance",
        "label": "Balance",
        "color": "blue",
        "start": "2026-06-26",
        "end": "2026-07-03",
        "tenure": "New",
        "return": 0.017226,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "rotation_up",
        "label": "Rotation Up",
        "color": "teal",
        "start": "2026-07-10",
        "end": "2026-08-07",
        "tenure": "Developing",
        "return": 0.027658,
        "active": true
      }
    ],
    "chart_path": [
      {
        "date": "2023-08-18",
        "close": 115.400002,
        "volume": 34887,
        "typical_volume": 68480.25,
        "trend": 124.176667,
        "fair_value": 126.233334,
        "relative_strength": -3.770733,
        "stage": 4,
        "regime": "downward_expansion",
        "modifier": "Established contraction",
        "gate": "down",
        "direction": -71.85655,
        "energy": 54.41476,
        "activity_lines": [
          118.093336,
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          120.020715,
          121.42656
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      },
      {
        "date": "2023-08-25",
        "close": 113.900002,
        "volume": 69008,
        "typical_volume": 70311.45,
        "trend": 123.451667,
        "fair_value": 126.247757,
        "relative_strength": -5.777672,
        "stage": 4,
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        "energy": 77.191225,
        "activity_lines": [
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        ]
      },
      {
        "date": "2023-09-01",
        "close": 114.650002,
        "volume": 0,
        "typical_volume": 69315.7,
        "trend": 122.640001,
        "fair_value": 126.283654,
        "relative_strength": -6.464229,
        "stage": 4,
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        "modifier": "Established contraction",
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        "direction": -68.534674,
        "energy": 80.830733,
        "activity_lines": [
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      },
      {
        "date": "2023-09-08",
        "close": 116.150002,
        "volume": 35718,
        "typical_volume": 65792.75,
        "trend": 122.008334,
        "fair_value": 126.275,
        "relative_strength": -5.194707,
        "stage": 4,
        "regime": "downward_expansion",
        "modifier": "Established contraction",
        "gate": "down",
        "direction": -65.051951,
        "energy": 76.986889,
        "activity_lines": [
          115.193335,
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      },
      {
        "date": "2023-09-15",
        "close": 113.699997,
        "volume": 942,
        "typical_volume": 57660.1,
        "trend": 121.403333,
        "fair_value": 126.265064,
        "relative_strength": -9.69046,
        "stage": 4,
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        "energy": 75.572634,
        "activity_lines": [
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      },
      {
        "date": "2023-09-22",
        "close": 115.599998,
        "volume": 18194,
        "typical_volume": 57765.8,
        "trend": 120.96,
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        "relative_strength": -7.565593,
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        "gate": "down",
        "direction": -60.563583,
        "energy": 48.253097,
        "activity_lines": [
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      },
      {
        "date": "2023-09-29",
        "close": 119.800003,
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        "relative_strength": -3.162442,
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        "energy": 24.626106,
        "activity_lines": [
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      },
      {
        "date": "2023-10-06",
        "close": 118.5,
        "volume": 214635,
        "typical_volume": 63799.7,
        "trend": 120.311667,
        "fair_value": 126.295193,
        "relative_strength": -2.677683,
        "stage": 4,
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        "direction": -34.759547,
        "energy": 18.801146,
        "activity_lines": [
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      },
      {
        "date": "2023-10-13",
        "close": 118.849998,
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        "typical_volume": 63844.55,
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        "relative_strength": -3.633499,
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        "energy": 21.592246,
        "activity_lines": [
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      },
      {
        "date": "2023-10-20",
        "close": 116.099998,
        "volume": 12056,
        "typical_volume": 43777.55,
        "trend": 119.73,
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        "relative_strength": -3.210318,
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      },
      {
        "date": "2023-10-27",
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        "typical_volume": 38879.05,
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      },
      {
        "date": "2023-11-03",
        "close": 115.599998,
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        "relative_strength": -3.576359,
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        "energy": 38.492076,
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      },
      {
        "date": "2023-11-10",
        "close": 119.099998,
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        "typical_volume": 39476.55,
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        "energy": 25.662372,
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      },
      {
        "date": "2023-11-17",
        "close": 118.199997,
        "volume": 56330,
        "typical_volume": 41925.55,
        "trend": 118.81,
        "fair_value": 125.896154,
        "relative_strength": -2.405619,
        "stage": 4,
        "regime": "balance",
        "modifier": "Balance after decline",
        "gate": "down",
        "direction": -15.060403,
        "energy": 12.938158,
        "activity_lines": [
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      },
      {
        "date": "2023-11-24",
        "close": 118.050003,
        "volume": 32,
        "typical_volume": 41804.65,
        "trend": 118.6,
        "fair_value": 125.804808,
        "relative_strength": -2.226946,
        "stage": 4,
        "regime": "balance",
        "modifier": "Balance after decline",
        "gate": "down",
        "direction": -7.865495,
        "energy": 11.782716,
        "activity_lines": [
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      },
      {
        "date": "2023-12-01",
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        "relative_strength": -3.111376,
        "stage": 4,
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        "modifier": "Balance after decline",
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        "activity_lines": [
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      },
      {
        "date": "2023-12-08",
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        "typical_volume": 40614.6,
        "trend": 118.238334,
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      },
      {
        "date": "2023-12-15",
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        "modifier": "Balance after decline",
        "gate": "mixed",
        "direction": 25.964403,
        "energy": 30.28534,
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      },
      {
        "date": "2023-12-22",
        "close": 121.849998,
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        "typical_volume": 39368.9,
        "trend": 118.056667,
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        "activity_lines": [
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      },
      {
        "date": "2023-12-29",
        "close": 120.800003,
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        "typical_volume": 32570.6,
        "trend": 118.045,
        "fair_value": 125.24391,
        "relative_strength": -2.573009,
        "stage": 1,
        "regime": "rotation_up",
        "modifier": "Structural repair",
        "gate": "mixed",
        "direction": 38.911914,
        "energy": 56.106944,
        "activity_lines": [
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      },
      {
        "date": "2024-01-05",
        "close": 124.550003,
        "volume": 99989,
        "typical_volume": 35825.7,
        "trend": 118.19,
        "fair_value": 125.150962,
        "relative_strength": 1.121635,
        "stage": 1,
        "regime": "rotation_up",
        "modifier": "Emerging rotation",
        "gate": "up",
        "direction": 85.782161,
        "energy": 83.31816,
        "activity_lines": [
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      },
      {
        "date": "2024-01-12",
        "close": 124.050003,
        "volume": 68677,
        "typical_volume": 35809.15,
        "trend": 118.385001,
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        "relative_strength": 1.677428,
        "stage": 1,
        "regime": "upward_expansion",
        "modifier": "Early expansion",
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        "direction": 77.477691,
        "energy": 83.584516,
        "activity_lines": [
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      },
      {
        "date": "2024-01-19",
        "close": 121.349998,
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        "typical_volume": 39487.05,
        "trend": 118.511667,
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        "stage": 1,
        "regime": "upward_expansion",
        "modifier": "Early expansion",
        "gate": "up",
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        "activity_lines": [
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-05-01",
        "close": 107.300003,
        "volume": 244450,
        "typical_volume": 190351.45,
        "trend": 115.200333,
        "fair_value": 119.568398,
        "relative_strength": -15.146644,
        "stage": 4,
        "regime": "downward_expansion",
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        "activity_lines": [
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-05-08",
        "close": 110.699997,
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        "typical_volume": 213935.05,
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        "activity_lines": [
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-05-15",
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        "typical_volume": 250013.5,
        "trend": 115.043667,
        "fair_value": 119.417436,
        "relative_strength": -9.659889,
        "stage": 4,
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        "modifier": "Early contraction",
        "gate": "down",
        "direction": -55.24098,
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        "activity_lines": [
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-05-22",
        "close": 110.650002,
        "volume": 736340,
        "typical_volume": 285116.7,
        "trend": 113.773334,
        "fair_value": 119.334744,
        "relative_strength": -11.905584,
        "stage": 4,
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        "modifier": "Early contraction",
        "gate": "down",
        "direction": -53.630684,
        "energy": 40.654895,
        "activity_lines": [
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        ]
      },
      {
        "date": "2026-05-29",
        "close": 106.300003,
        "volume": 320190,
        "typical_volume": 294914.7,
        "trend": 113.568334,
        "fair_value": 119.239551,
        "relative_strength": -14.42134,
        "stage": 4,
        "regime": "downward_expansion",
        "modifier": "Early contraction",
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        "direction": -69.443793,
        "energy": 44.381245,
        "activity_lines": [
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-06-05",
        "close": 110.25,
        "volume": 20111,
        "typical_volume": 289157.6,
        "trend": 113.636667,
        "fair_value": 119.175769,
        "relative_strength": -10.434237,
        "stage": 4,
        "regime": "downward_expansion",
        "modifier": "Early contraction",
        "gate": "down",
        "direction": -52.59875,
        "energy": 34.885681,
        "activity_lines": [
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-06-12",
        "close": 111.9,
        "volume": 331849,
        "typical_volume": 300613.65,
        "trend": 113.841667,
        "fair_value": 119.135385,
        "relative_strength": -9.554134,
        "stage": 4,
        "regime": "downward_expansion",
        "modifier": "Established contraction",
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-06-19",
        "close": 117.45,
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        "typical_volume": 297829.9,
        "trend": 113.938334,
        "fair_value": 119.134744,
        "relative_strength": -3.753789,
        "stage": 4,
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        "modifier": "Established contraction",
        "gate": "down",
        "direction": -7.256768,
        "energy": 8.750955,
        "activity_lines": [
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-06-26",
        "close": 113.2,
        "volume": 335,
        "typical_volume": 288235.05,
        "trend": 113.915001,
        "fair_value": 119.083462,
        "relative_strength": -8.109496,
        "stage": 1,
        "regime": "balance",
        "modifier": "Balance after decline",
        "gate": "down",
        "direction": -22.018454,
        "energy": 21.011903,
        "activity_lines": [
          113.22,
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-07-03",
        "close": 115.15,
        "volume": 427,
        "typical_volume": 280885.55,
        "trend": 114.036667,
        "fair_value": 119.073846,
        "relative_strength": -7.628101,
        "stage": 1,
        "regime": "balance",
        "modifier": "Balance after decline",
        "gate": "mixed",
        "direction": 17.20199,
        "energy": 25.389976,
        "activity_lines": [
          114.33,
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-07-10",
        "close": 115.7,
        "volume": 36991,
        "typical_volume": 274490.85,
        "trend": 114.150001,
        "fair_value": 119.041475,
        "relative_strength": -5.184641,
        "stage": 1,
        "regime": "rotation_up",
        "modifier": "Structural repair",
        "gate": "mixed",
        "direction": 22.589229,
        "energy": 31.464158,
        "activity_lines": [
          115.033333,
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-07-17",
        "close": 118.2,
        "volume": 154678,
        "typical_volume": 272314.15,
        "trend": 114.355,
        "fair_value": 119.006539,
        "relative_strength": -3.764937,
        "stage": 1,
        "regime": "rotation_up",
        "modifier": "Emerging rotation",
        "gate": "mixed",
        "direction": 33.349231,
        "energy": 49.565442,
        "activity_lines": [
          116.206667,
          114.426364,
          112.837382,
          113.496667
        ]
      },
      {
        "date": "2026-07-24",
        "close": 117.8,
        "volume": 170257,
        "typical_volume": 269389.25,
        "trend": 114.551667,
        "fair_value": 118.972885,
        "relative_strength": -4.960776,
        "stage": 1,
        "regime": "rotation_up",
        "modifier": "Emerging rotation",
        "gate": "mixed",
        "direction": 30.487191,
        "energy": 51.797473,
        "activity_lines": [
          116.826667,
          115.3,
          113.350239,
          113.718925
        ]
      },
      {
        "date": "2026-07-31",
        "close": 117.4,
        "volume": 91954,
        "typical_volume": 241114.6,
        "trend": 114.675,
        "fair_value": 118.955257,
        "relative_strength": -6.100322,
        "stage": 1,
        "regime": "rotation_up",
        "modifier": "Emerging rotation",
        "gate": "mixed",
        "direction": 24.937139,
        "energy": 43.705984,
        "activity_lines": [
          117.29,
          115.98,
          113.82762,
          113.902689
        ]
      },
      {
        "date": "2026-08-07",
        "close": 118.9,
        "volume": 117907,
        "typical_volume": 229925.5,
        "trend": 114.691667,
        "fair_value": 118.973526,
        "relative_strength": -4.831806,
        "stage": 1,
        "regime": "rotation_up",
        "modifier": "Emerging rotation",
        "gate": "mixed",
        "direction": 42.183552,
        "energy": 51.882432,
        "activity_lines": [
          117.973333,
          116.81,
          114.427143,
          114.175269
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      }
    ],
    "method": {
      "price_basis": "completed market observations",
      "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.",
      "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.",
      "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.",
      "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read."
    }
  }
}