{ "ticker": { "uuid": "67df6dfe-e3d1-4507-9aa0-8c88229e1edf", "symbol": "EVSM", "name": "MORGAN STANLEY ETF TRUST EATON VANCE SHORT DURATION MUNICIPAL INC", "exchange": "NYSEARCA", "country": "US", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "SPY", "stage": 3, "stage_name": "Distribution", "phase": "3c", "phase_label": "Stage 3C \u00b7 Breakdown watch", "transition": "stage_3_to_4_watch", "transition_label": "Stage 3 \u2192 4 watch", "confidence": 93.604, "architecture_regime": "balance", "architecture_regime_label": "Balance", "architecture_modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "architecture_gate": "mixed", "architecture_direction": 17.06, "architecture_energy": 15.01, "architecture_maturity": 16.643, "architecture_confidence": 54.27, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "Directional pressure has compressed into balance.", "body": "Trend and Activity are compressed into balance, so neither side has durable control. Prior structure and the next directional change provide context; balance alone is not assumed to be a base." }, "scores": { "balance": 62.57, "rotation_up": 21.85, "upward_expansion": 21.39, "deceleration": 72.49, "rotation_down": 46.08, "downward_expansion": 29.72 }, "activity_lines": [ 50.092638, 50.124266, 50.115894, 50.112495 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.166667 }, "latest_close": 50.22, "trend_reference": 50.111892, "distance_from_trend": 0.002157, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 48.570449, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.033962, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -10.339406, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.001302, "excess_performance": -0.124323, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.002157, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.003401, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.033962, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.000409, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.103394, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.001323, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.001302, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.974573, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 570573, "relative_activity": 1.097636, "balance": 0.974573, "dry_up": 1.015426, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 4 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.003265, "annualized_volatility": 0.017493, "from_high_reference": -0.003914, "from_low_reference": 0.024451 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 50.111892, "fair_value_reference": 48.570449, "structural_low": 49.673137, "invalidation": "A decisive breakout above range resistance with renewed RS leadership invalidates the distribution reading; a range-low break confirms deterioration." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 0, "median_return": null, "positive_rate": null, "directional_follow_through": null, "median_excess_return": null, "regime_survival": null, "best_return": null, "worst_return": null, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 0, "median_return": null, "positive_rate": null, "directional_follow_through": null, "median_excess_return": null, "regime_survival": null, "best_return": null, "worst_return": null, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 0, "median_return": null, "positive_rate": null, "directional_follow_through": null, "median_excess_return": null, "regime_survival": null, "best_return": null, "worst_return": null, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", 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50.014876, "fair_value": 48.47773, "relative_strength": -9.045743, "stage": 3, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Re-acceleration watch", "gate": "up", "direction": 61.861323, "energy": 53.033892, "activity_lines": [ 50.201218, 50.129535, 50.107069, 50.087907 ] }, { "date": "2026-06-26", "close": 50.178979, "volume": 548802, "typical_volume": 477251.45, "trend": 50.034869, "fair_value": 48.492147, "relative_strength": -6.715033, "stage": 3, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 55.213542, "energy": 56.68592, "activity_lines": [ 50.209532, 50.142404, 50.112299, 50.098494 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-03", "close": 50.187858, "volume": 475363, "typical_volume": 481056.85, "trend": 50.054189, "fair_value": 48.506397, "relative_strength": -8.407523, "stage": 3, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 54.858941, "energy": 52.586198, "activity_lines": [ 50.204859, 50.156842, 50.118259, 50.108364 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-10", "close": 50.177884, "volume": 609424, "typical_volume": 497481.05, "trend": 50.072849, "fair_value": 48.520326, "relative_strength": -9.363074, "stage": 3, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 51.262562, "energy": 36.974613, "activity_lines": [ 50.193107, 50.169442, 50.123866, 50.116344 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 50.137989, "volume": 444918, "typical_volume": 505441.5, "trend": 50.086894, "fair_value": 48.533695, "relative_strength": -7.746379, "stage": 3, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 45.73162, "energy": 22.279602, "activity_lines": [ 50.172282, 50.171425, 50.126318, 50.120547 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 49.918567, "volume": 550938, "typical_volume": 507706.8, "trend": 50.094097, "fair_value": 48.545046, "relative_strength": -7.367759, "stage": 3, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -23.102928, "energy": 16.651241, "activity_lines": [ 50.082209, 50.13196, 50.108942, 50.109687 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 50.02, "volume": 544924, "typical_volume": 511319.95, "trend": 50.102376, "fair_value": 48.557038, "relative_strength": -7.875981, "stage": 3, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -15.060398, "energy": 19.273022, "activity_lines": [ 50.048791, 50.110661, 50.102562, 50.104907 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 50.22, "volume": 570573, "typical_volume": 519819.65, "trend": 50.111892, "fair_value": 48.570449, "relative_strength": -10.339406, "stage": 3, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 17.060493, "energy": 15.01002, "activity_lines": [ 50.092638, 50.124266, 50.115894, 50.112495 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }