{ "ticker": { "uuid": "67e2e9f6-7558-49a9-bf6c-eb861d9cea8c", "symbol": "AXEE", "name": "iShares Asia exJpn Eq En Actv U", "exchange": "MIL", "country": "IT", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "FTSEMIB.MI", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2b", "phase_label": "Stage 2B \u00b7 Advancing", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 79.612, "architecture_regime": "deceleration", "architecture_regime_label": "Deceleration", "architecture_modifier": "Recompressing", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 26.94, "architecture_energy": 27.04, "architecture_maturity": 66.345, "architecture_confidence": 79.986, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The upward structure remains, but its energy is decelerating.", "body": "Trend remains positive, but Activity or price acceptance is losing strength. This can become a healthy recompression, a re-acceleration, or a Rotation Down." }, "scores": { "balance": 55.22, "rotation_up": 18.52, "upward_expansion": 53.54, "deceleration": 94.0, "rotation_down": 35.98, "downward_expansion": 19.54 }, "activity_lines": [ 7.388133, 7.532727, 7.487714, 7.257501 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": 0.0 }, "latest_close": 7.417, "trend_reference": 6.952467, "distance_from_trend": 0.066816, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 5.721424, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.296356, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -0.446132, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.182557, "excess_performance": 0.011666, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.066816, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.092377, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.296356, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.071187, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.004461, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.134046, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.182557, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.604555, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 192633, "relative_activity": 3.159972, "balance": 0.604555, "dry_up": 1.683205, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 4 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.044575, "annualized_volatility": 0.240414, "from_high_reference": -0.088821, "from_low_reference": 0.398906 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 6.952467, "fair_value_reference": 5.721424, "structural_low": 5.931, "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 1, "median_return": 0.136198, "positive_rate": 1.0, "directional_follow_through": 1.0, "median_excess_return": 0.037602, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.136198, "worst_return": 0.136198, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 1, "median_return": 0.293388, "positive_rate": 1.0, "directional_follow_through": 1.0, "median_excess_return": 0.111595, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.293388, "worst_return": 0.293388, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 0, "median_return": null, "positive_rate": null, "directional_follow_through": null, "median_excess_return": null, "regime_survival": null, "best_return": null, "worst_return": null, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 0, "median_return": null, "positive_rate": null, "directional_follow_through": null, "median_excess_return": null, "regime_survival": null, "best_return": null, "worst_return": null, "sufficient": false } ], "ledger": [ { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2026-03-27", "end": "2026-04-17", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.12562, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2026-04-24", "end": "2026-07-17", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.057317, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2026-07-24", "end": "2026-08-07", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.00027, "active": true } ], "chart_path": [ { "date": "2024-09-20", "close": 4.5905, "volume": 1000, "typical_volume": null, "trend": null, "fair_value": null, "relative_strength": null, "stage": null, "regime": null, "modifier": null, "gate": null, "direction": null, "energy": null, "activity_lines": [ null, null, null, null ] 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54321.9, "trend": 6.910833, "fair_value": 5.704122, "relative_strength": 1.127183, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 31.177141, "energy": 26.466011, "activity_lines": [ 7.4184, 7.576418, 7.467852, 7.224845 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 7.417, "volume": 192633, "typical_volume": 60960.35, "trend": 6.952467, "fair_value": 5.721424, "relative_strength": -0.446132, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 26.940261, "energy": 27.040305, "activity_lines": [ 7.388133, 7.532727, 7.487714, 7.257501 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }