{
  "ticker": {
    "uuid": "67eca7de-b5ef-430c-a4f6-a69c2ac3d899",
    "symbol": "BJUL",
    "name": "Innovator U.S. Equity Buffer ETF - July",
    "exchange": "CBOE",
    "country": "US",
    "assetType": "etf"
  },
  "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.",
  "analysis": {
    "eligible": true,
    "as_of": "2026-08-07",
    "benchmark": "SPY",
    "stage": 2,
    "stage_name": "Advancing",
    "phase": "2b",
    "phase_label": "Stage 2B \u00b7 Advancing",
    "transition": "stage_2_healthy",
    "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact",
    "confidence": 54.155,
    "architecture_regime": "upward_expansion",
    "architecture_regime_label": "Upward Expansion",
    "architecture_modifier": "Established expansion",
    "architecture_gate": "up",
    "architecture_direction": 89.01,
    "architecture_energy": 71.623,
    "architecture_maturity": 74.531,
    "architecture_confidence": 57.74,
    "architecture_tenure": "Established",
    "architecture": {
      "interpretation": {
        "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding upward.",
        "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained positive alignment with constructive price acceptance. Directional energy remains positive; cooling within this regime can indicate that it is maturing."
      },
      "scores": {
        "balance": 12.6,
        "rotation_up": 57.96,
        "upward_expansion": 83.0,
        "deceleration": 71.1,
        "rotation_down": 27.78,
        "downward_expansion": 12.0
      },
      "activity_lines": [
        54.740413,
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        54.035868,
        53.308536
      ],
      "activity_state": "Wide",
      "activity_direction": "Contracting",
      "rotation_direction": "Weakening",
      "price_acceptance": 0.5
    },
    "latest_close": 55.6058,
    "trend_reference": 52.47218,
    "distance_from_trend": 0.05972,
    "trend_direction": "Improving",
    "fair_value": 44.765447,
    "distance_from_fair_value": 0.242159,
    "fair_value_direction": "Improving",
    "relative_strength": -3.400709,
    "relative_strength_direction": "Improving",
    "price_momentum": 0.084105,
    "excess_performance": -0.04152,
    "evidence": [
      {
        "label": "Price vs Trend",
        "positive": true,
        "value": 0.05972,
        "read": "Above"
      },
      {
        "label": "Trend direction",
        "positive": true,
        "value": 0.025672,
        "read": "Rising"
      },
      {
        "label": "Price vs current Fair Value",
        "positive": true,
        "value": 0.242159,
        "read": "Premium"
      },
      {
        "label": "Fair Value direction",
        "positive": true,
        "value": 0.006071,
        "read": "Closing upward"
      },
      {
        "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark",
        "positive": false,
        "value": -0.034007,
        "read": "Lagging"
      },
      {
        "label": "Relative strength direction",
        "positive": true,
        "value": 0.005827,
        "read": "Improving"
      },
      {
        "label": "Price momentum",
        "positive": true,
        "value": 0.084105,
        "read": "Positive"
      },
      {
        "label": "Volume balance",
        "positive": false,
        "value": 0.261848,
        "read": "Supply-led"
      }
    ],
    "volume": {
      "latest": 62211,
      "relative_activity": 0.351716,
      "balance": 0.261848,
      "dry_up": 1.778139,
      "accumulation_observations": 0,
      "distribution_observations": 2
    },
    "risk": {
      "range_context": 0.010311,
      "annualized_volatility": 0.081364,
      "from_high_reference": -0.002204,
      "from_low_reference": 0.157998
    },
    "levels": {
      "trend_reference": 52.47218,
      "fair_value_reference": 44.765447,
      "structural_low": 48.45,
      "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis."
    },
    "outcomes": [
      {
        "horizon": "Near term",
        "sample_count": 47,
        "median_return": 0.012358,
        "positive_rate": 0.680851,
        "directional_follow_through": 0.680851,
        "median_excess_return": -0.003793,
        "regime_survival": 0.87234,
        "best_return": 0.061871,
        "worst_return": -0.047224,
        "sufficient": true
      },
      {
        "horizon": "Intermediate",
        "sample_count": 16,
        "median_return": 0.033296,
        "positive_rate": 0.75,
        "directional_follow_through": 0.75,
        "median_excess_return": -0.00606,
        "regime_survival": 0.75,
        "best_return": 0.094929,
        "worst_return": -0.010899,
        "sufficient": true
      },
      {
        "horizon": "Extended",
        "sample_count": 9,
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        "positive_rate": 0.888889,
        "directional_follow_through": 0.888889,
        "median_excess_return": -0.025911,
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        "worst_return": -0.069944,
        "sufficient": true
      },
      {
        "horizon": "Full cycle",
        "sample_count": 4,
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        "best_return": 0.244183,
        "worst_return": -0.025392,
        "sufficient": false
      }
    ],
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        "label": "Deceleration",
        "color": "amber",
        "start": "2024-05-03",
        "end": "2024-05-10",
        "tenure": "New",
        "return": 0.015818,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "upward_expansion",
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      },
      {
        "regime": "deceleration",
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        "active": false
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      {
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        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "deceleration",
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        "active": false
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      {
        "regime": "upward_expansion",
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        "active": false
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      {
        "regime": "rotation_down",
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        "tenure": "New",
        "return": -0.028634,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "downward_expansion",
        "label": "Downward Expansion",
        "color": "red",
        "start": "2025-04-18",
        "end": "2025-05-16",
        "tenure": "Developing",
        "return": 0.092983,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "balance",
        "label": "Balance",
        "color": "blue",
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        "active": false
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        "date": "2026-04-24",
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        "date": "2026-05-08",
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-07-03",
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      },
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-07-17",
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        "typical_volume": 172176.8,
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        "fair_value": 44.399388,
        "relative_strength": -2.308161,
        "stage": 2,
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        ]
      },
      {
        "date": "2026-07-24",
        "close": 53.95,
        "volume": 83579,
        "typical_volume": 174000.6,
        "trend": 52.20254,
        "fair_value": 44.51394,
        "relative_strength": -2.139762,
        "stage": 2,
        "regime": "upward_expansion",
        "modifier": "Established expansion",
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        "direction": 63.527683,
        "energy": 62.490471,
        "activity_lines": [
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-07-31",
        "close": 54.5193,
        "volume": 51518,
        "typical_volume": 174899.25,
        "trend": 52.32685,
        "fair_value": 44.635794,
        "relative_strength": -2.075461,
        "stage": 2,
        "regime": "upward_expansion",
        "modifier": "Established expansion",
        "gate": "up",
        "direction": 72.792691,
        "energy": 65.074277,
        "activity_lines": [
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        ]
      },
      {
        "date": "2026-08-07",
        "close": 55.6058,
        "volume": 62211,
        "typical_volume": 176878.6,
        "trend": 52.47218,
        "fair_value": 44.765447,
        "relative_strength": -3.400709,
        "stage": 2,
        "regime": "upward_expansion",
        "modifier": "Established expansion",
        "gate": "up",
        "direction": 89.01015,
        "energy": 71.623243,
        "activity_lines": [
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      }
    ],
    "method": {
      "price_basis": "completed market observations",
      "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.",
      "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.",
      "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.",
      "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read."
    }
  }
}