{ "ticker": { "uuid": "67ef0f2d-c07f-4d28-908f-13355bfff82f", "symbol": "AOM", "name": "ISHARES CORE 40/60 MODERATE ALLOCATION ETF", "exchange": "NYSEARCA", "country": "US", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "SPY", "stage": 3, "stage_name": "Distribution", "phase": "3a", "phase_label": "Stage 3A \u00b7 Churning", "transition": "stage_3_churning", "transition_label": "Stage 3 range intact", "confidence": 70.987, "architecture_regime": "deceleration", "architecture_regime_label": "Deceleration", "architecture_modifier": "Recompressing", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 70.176, "architecture_energy": 37.084, "architecture_maturity": 24.992, "architecture_confidence": 49.727, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The upward structure remains, but its energy is decelerating.", "body": "Trend remains positive, but Activity or price acceptance is losing strength. This can become a healthy recompression, a re-acceleration, or a Rotation Down." }, "scores": { "balance": 35.23, "rotation_up": 43.21, "upward_expansion": 70.57, "deceleration": 66.46, "rotation_down": 26.22, "downward_expansion": 8.57 }, "activity_lines": [ 49.340667, 49.300561, 49.155067, 48.865398 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": 0.5 }, "latest_close": 49.93, "trend_reference": 48.562672, "distance_from_trend": 0.028156, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 43.018641, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.16066, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -6.897315, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.033471, "excess_performance": -0.092154, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.028156, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.014037, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.16066, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.009672, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.068973, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.007596, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.033471, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.465322, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 461303, "relative_activity": 0.635658, "balance": 1.465322, "dry_up": 0.905229, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 3 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.012761, "annualized_volatility": 0.079579, "from_high_reference": -0.001, "from_low_reference": 0.107356 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 48.562672, "fair_value_reference": 43.018641, "structural_low": 46.296071, "invalidation": "A decisive breakout above range resistance with renewed RS leadership invalidates the distribution reading; a range-low break confirms deterioration." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": 0.017631, "positive_rate": 0.833333, "directional_follow_through": 0.833333, "median_excess_return": -0.023304, "regime_survival": 0.333333, "best_return": 0.05338, "worst_return": -0.008998, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": 0.041979, "positive_rate": 1.0, "directional_follow_through": 1.0, "median_excess_return": -0.05449, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.064349, "worst_return": 0.003482, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": 0.040925, "positive_rate": 1.0, "directional_follow_through": 1.0, "median_excess_return": -0.07057, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.075881, "worst_return": 0.005026, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", 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49.121367, 48.649841, 48.43789 ] }, { "date": "2026-06-26", "close": 49.203732, "volume": 865580, "typical_volume": 743742.35, "trend": 48.200389, "fair_value": 42.547595, "relative_strength": -3.701531, "stage": 3, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 56.855679, "energy": 40.364512, "activity_lines": [ 49.274481, 49.152586, 48.726949, 48.50676 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-03", "close": 49.35, "volume": 581105, "typical_volume": 748107.15, "trend": 48.270384, "fair_value": 42.629866, "relative_strength": -5.303159, "stage": 3, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 59.065217, "energy": 46.884853, "activity_lines": [ 49.304723, 49.207604, 48.813745, 48.580928 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-10", "close": 49.41, "volume": 704978, "typical_volume": 756282.05, "trend": 48.345327, "fair_value": 42.70781, "relative_strength": -6.292198, "stage": 3, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 59.29492, "energy": 48.015868, "activity_lines": [ 49.363067, 49.26535, 48.902122, 48.654452 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 49.12, "volume": 516519, "typical_volume": 747980.85, "trend": 48.405364, "fair_value": 42.783128, "relative_strength": -5.228643, "stage": 3, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 54.966851, "energy": 35.0721, "activity_lines": [ 49.283883, 49.254536, 48.959879, 48.704431 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 48.83, "volume": 952488, "typical_volume": 762988.5, "trend": 48.444125, "fair_value": 42.856293, "relative_strength": -5.089828, "stage": 3, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 40.454725, "energy": 24.699399, "activity_lines": [ 49.117582, 49.191255, 48.988586, 48.731827 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 49.08, "volume": 697421, "typical_volume": 737579.3, "trend": 48.495524, "fair_value": 42.934124, "relative_strength": -5.457424, "stage": 3, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 36.645186, "energy": 20.37289, "activity_lines": [ 49.083333, 49.169404, 49.035944, 48.772851 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 49.93, "volume": 461303, "typical_volume": 725709.15, "trend": 48.562672, "fair_value": 43.018641, "relative_strength": -6.897315, "stage": 3, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 70.176038, "energy": 37.083597, "activity_lines": [ 49.340667, 49.300561, 49.155067, 48.865398 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }