{ "ticker": { "uuid": "67f2fbd4-26bf-4265-a12c-8666957e7540", "symbol": "RH", "name": "RH", "exchange": "NYSE", "country": "US", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "SPY", "stage": 1, "stage_name": "Basing", "phase": "1c", "phase_label": "Stage 1C \u00b7 Breakout watch", "transition": "stage_1_to_2_watch", "transition_label": "Stage 1 \u2192 2 watch", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "rotation_up", "architecture_regime_label": "Rotation Up", "architecture_modifier": "Emerging rotation", "architecture_gate": "mixed", "architecture_direction": 50.057, "architecture_energy": 51.45, "architecture_maturity": 23.393, "architecture_confidence": 66.82, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The Activity Line structure is rotating upward.", "body": "Fast Activity is improving relative to Slow Activity and price acceptance is strengthening. This is earlier than full positive Trend confirmation and remains a developing repair." }, "scores": { "balance": 20.77, "rotation_up": 68.93, "upward_expansion": 57.55, "deceleration": 26.78, "rotation_down": 19.3, "downward_expansion": 15.88 }, "activity_lines": [ 180.498, 173.328364, 159.939381, 156.07643 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": 0.833333 }, "latest_close": 196.15, "trend_reference": 161.121, "distance_from_trend": 0.217408, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 243.794038, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.195427, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -0.116491, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": -0.071084, "excess_performance": -0.196708, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.217408, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.010052, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.195427, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.283993, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.001165, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.354205, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.071084, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.441641, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 4086260, "relative_activity": 0.788947, "balance": 1.441641, "dry_up": 0.730737, "accumulation_observations": 3, "distribution_observations": 0 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.116745, "annualized_volatility": 0.671796, "from_high_reference": -0.23677, "from_low_reference": 0.845185 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 161.121, "fair_value_reference": 243.794038, "structural_low": 106.3037, "invalidation": "A renewed decline below the structural range low, widening the discount to current Fair Value while Trend falls, weakens the base diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": -0.146422, "positive_rate": 0.25, "directional_follow_through": 0.25, "median_excess_return": -0.157656, "regime_survival": 0.25, "best_return": 0.175066, "worst_return": -0.373988, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": -0.358327, "positive_rate": 0.0, "directional_follow_through": 0.0, "median_excess_return": -0.420656, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": -0.197913, "worst_return": -0.394418, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 2, "median_return": -0.274627, "positive_rate": 0.0, "directional_follow_through": 0.0, "median_excess_return": -0.337234, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": -0.115629, "worst_return": -0.433625, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": 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150.706086 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-03", "close": 169.08, "volume": 3207734, "typical_volume": 5654249.2, "trend": 162.509, "fair_value": 250.313077, "relative_strength": -13.713487, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": 11.87274, "energy": 23.945639, "activity_lines": [ 158.569333, 151.151455, 143.511, 151.147269 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-10", "close": 165.35, "volume": 3717448, "typical_volume": 5607414.0, "trend": 162.620333, "fair_value": 248.956538, "relative_strength": -16.033072, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": 6.591899, "energy": 33.262651, "activity_lines": [ 161.960667, 154.891091, 145.602048, 151.330559 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 187.88, "volume": 4065165, "typical_volume": 5516643.25, "trend": 163.183667, "fair_value": 247.739615, "relative_strength": -2.64914, "stage": 1, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 44.079753, "energy": 59.936464, "activity_lines": [ 171.614, 162.083818, 150.040619, 152.960215 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 174.51, "volume": 3429466, "typical_volume": 5405622.6, "trend": 162.812333, "fair_value": 246.375641, "relative_strength": -8.343248, "stage": 1, "regime": "rotation_up", "modifier": "Structural repair", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 26.200384, "energy": 51.818067, "activity_lines": [ 174.488, 165.864, 153.100286, 153.690946 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 165.52, "volume": 3558168, "typical_volume": 5240940.3, "trend": 161.882667, "fair_value": 244.918397, "relative_strength": -13.329012, "stage": 1, "regime": "rotation_up", "modifier": "Emerging rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 32.922151, "energy": 37.200466, "activity_lines": [ 172.604, 167.076182, 155.149714, 153.865634 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 196.15, "volume": 4086260, "typical_volume": 5179382.9, "trend": 161.121, "fair_value": 243.794038, "relative_strength": -0.116491, "stage": 1, "regime": "rotation_up", "modifier": "Emerging rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 50.057351, "energy": 51.450159, "activity_lines": [ 180.498, 173.328364, 159.939381, 156.07643 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }