{ "ticker": { "uuid": "67f8ad13-a16b-4dfa-9efc-33ee491e1fe4", "symbol": "PGP", "name": "Pimco Global StocksPLUS & Income Fund", "exchange": "NYSE", "country": "US", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "SPY", "stage": 3, "stage_name": "Distribution", "phase": "3c", "phase_label": "Stage 3C \u00b7 Breakdown watch", "transition": "stage_3_to_4_watch", "transition_label": "Stage 3 \u2192 4 watch", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "balance", "architecture_regime_label": "Balance", "architecture_modifier": "Balance after decline", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -29.855, "architecture_energy": 16.557, "architecture_maturity": 32.037, "architecture_confidence": 74.797, "architecture_tenure": "Established", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "Directional pressure has compressed into balance.", "body": "Trend and Activity are compressed into balance, so neither side has durable control. Prior structure and the next directional change provide context; balance alone is not assumed to be a base." }, "scores": { "balance": 53.83, "rotation_up": 21.55, "upward_expansion": 12.04, "deceleration": 48.99, "rotation_down": 41.95, "downward_expansion": 66.37 }, "activity_lines": [ 8.530024, 8.526132, 8.579616, 8.593415 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Stable", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.166667 }, "latest_close": 8.64, "trend_reference": 8.635953, "distance_from_trend": 0.000469, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 7.053832, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.224866, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -8.679967, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.026884, "excess_performance": -0.152509, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.000469, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.00384, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.224866, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.084288, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.0868, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.057413, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.026884, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.936458, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 402426, "relative_activity": 1.873094, "balance": 0.936458, "dry_up": 1.386666, "accumulation_observations": 4, "distribution_observations": 5 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.037037, "annualized_volatility": 0.203195, "from_high_reference": -0.051204, "from_low_reference": 0.133939 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 8.635953, "fair_value_reference": 7.053832, "structural_low": 7.851659, "invalidation": "A decisive breakout above range resistance with renewed RS leadership invalidates the distribution reading; a range-low break confirms deterioration." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 15, "median_return": -0.00088, "positive_rate": 0.466667, "directional_follow_through": 0.466667, "median_excess_return": -0.004909, "regime_survival": 0.466667, "best_return": 0.14765, "worst_return": -0.111809, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 8, "median_return": -0.012159, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.043512, "regime_survival": 0.25, "best_return": 0.108846, "worst_return": -0.123309, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": 0.03072, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": 0.006028, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.123717, "worst_return": -0.160835, "sufficient": false }, { 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false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2024-11-15", "end": "2024-12-06", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.042875, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2024-12-13", "end": "2024-12-27", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.033624, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-01-03", "end": "2025-02-21", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.046497, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-02-28", "end": "2025-04-04", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.045211, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2025-04-11", "end": "2025-05-02", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.112676, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-05-09", "end": "2025-05-30", 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"2026-08-07", "close": 8.64, "volume": 402426, "typical_volume": 214845.55, "trend": 8.635953, "fair_value": 7.053832, "relative_strength": -8.679967, "stage": 3, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -29.854747, "energy": 16.556562, "activity_lines": [ 8.530024, 8.526132, 8.579616, 8.593415 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }