{ "ticker": { "uuid": "67f9a0e8-3672-45ad-9bf5-1a6fcfd677f5", "symbol": "GMDCLTD", "name": "Gujarat Mineral Development Corporation Limited", "exchange": "NSI", "country": "IN", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^NSEI", "stage": 3, "stage_name": "Distribution", "phase": "3b", "phase_label": "Stage 3B \u00b7 Distribution", "transition": "stage_3_churning", "transition_label": "Stage 3 range intact", "confidence": 79.834, "architecture_regime": "rotation_down", "architecture_regime_label": "Rotation Down", "architecture_modifier": "Supply rotation", "architecture_gate": "mixed", "architecture_direction": -25.594, "architecture_energy": 48.493, "architecture_maturity": 10.806, "architecture_confidence": 61.671, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The Activity Line structure is rotating downward.", "body": "Fast Activity is weakening relative to Slow Activity and price acceptance is deteriorating. Persistent negative Trend confirmation would establish Downward Expansion." }, "scores": { "balance": 27.27, "rotation_up": 17.34, "upward_expansion": 25.1, "deceleration": 50.8, "rotation_down": 64.3, "downward_expansion": 54.76 }, "activity_lines": [ 574.093327, 583.589085, 611.718805, 611.603436 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.833333 }, "latest_close": 582.799988, "trend_reference": 603.981661, "distance_from_trend": -0.03507, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 425.026123, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.37121, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": 1.332061, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.028829, "excess_performance": 0.014881, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.03507, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.025238, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.37121, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.39713, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": true, "value": 0.013321, "read": "Leading" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.341079, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.028829, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.84458, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 10037804, "relative_activity": 0.736929, "balance": 0.84458, "dry_up": 0.42326, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.063084, "annualized_volatility": 0.429625, "from_high_reference": -0.24498, "from_low_reference": 0.487347 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 603.981661, "fair_value_reference": 425.026123, "structural_low": 521.0, "invalidation": "A decisive breakout above range resistance with renewed RS leadership invalidates the distribution reading; a range-low break confirms deterioration." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 2, "median_return": 0.242084, "positive_rate": 1.0, "directional_follow_through": 0.0, "median_excess_return": 0.195364, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.264137, "worst_return": 0.22003, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 2, "median_return": 0.101239, "positive_rate": 1.0, "directional_follow_through": 0.0, "median_excess_return": 0.020927, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.142463, "worst_return": 0.060016, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 2, "median_return": 0.109446, "positive_rate": 1.0, "directional_follow_through": 0.0, "median_excess_return": -0.051515, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.14513, "worst_return": 0.073763, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 2, 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2, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Supply rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -28.562443, "energy": 43.481036, "activity_lines": [ 590.753329, 607.039087, 627.056187, 618.299028 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 562.549988, "volume": 3472588, "typical_volume": 15437867.3, "trend": 604.779995, "fair_value": 419.717869, "relative_strength": 2.412546, "stage": 3, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Supply rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -35.580176, "energy": 53.77139, "activity_lines": [ 580.033325, 596.271813, 621.353091, 615.51763 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 564.25, "volume": 5678184, "typical_volume": 15270149.1, "trend": 602.939994, "fair_value": 422.332834, "relative_strength": -0.525972, "stage": 3, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Supply rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -33.476151, "energy": 56.274388, "activity_lines": [ 573.236662, 587.450905, 615.737139, 612.902791 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 582.799988, "volume": 10037804, "typical_volume": 13621134.0, "trend": 603.981661, "fair_value": 425.026123, "relative_strength": 1.332061, "stage": 3, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Supply rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -25.593643, "energy": 48.493486, "activity_lines": [ 574.093327, 583.589085, 611.718805, 611.603436 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }