{ "ticker": { "uuid": "67fa3547-66c9-4b07-9aa7-6cc7970aa55d", "symbol": "5324", "name": "Shihlin Development Company Limited", "exchange": "TWO", "country": "TW", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-14", "benchmark": "^TWII", "stage": 1, "stage_name": "Basing", "phase": "1c", "phase_label": "Stage 1C \u00b7 Breakout watch", "transition": "stage_1_to_2_watch", "transition_label": "Stage 1 \u2192 2 watch", "confidence": 61.317, "architecture_regime": "deceleration", "architecture_regime_label": "Deceleration", "architecture_modifier": "Recompressing", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 58.122, "architecture_energy": 36.878, "architecture_maturity": 18.793, "architecture_confidence": 49.86, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The upward structure remains, but its energy is decelerating.", "body": "Trend remains positive, but Activity or price acceptance is losing strength. This can become a healthy recompression, a re-acceleration, or a Rotation Down." }, "scores": { "balance": 30.41, "rotation_up": 41.46, "upward_expansion": 73.43, "deceleration": 64.05, "rotation_down": 24.7, "downward_expansion": 4.76 }, "activity_lines": [ 12.146667, 12.107273, 11.968333, 11.777204 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": 0.333333 }, "latest_close": 12.25, "trend_reference": 11.491667, "distance_from_trend": 0.06599, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 11.744359, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.043054, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -21.349041, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": 0.161137, "excess_performance": -0.280235, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.06599, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.047713, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.043054, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.053736, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.21349, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.096283, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.161137, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.61795, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 1939219, "relative_activity": 1.281566, "balance": 0.61795, "dry_up": 1.113731, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 4 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.034537, "annualized_volatility": 0.230188, "from_high_reference": -0.02, "from_low_reference": 0.234879 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 11.491667, "fair_value_reference": 11.744359, "structural_low": 9.92, "invalidation": "A renewed decline below the structural range low, widening the discount to current Fair Value while Trend falls, weakens the base diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 8, "median_return": -0.006095, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.036048, "regime_survival": 0.375, "best_return": 0.30531, "worst_return": -0.091525, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": 0.031059, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.001046, "regime_survival": 0.25, "best_return": 0.139381, "worst_return": -0.097015, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": 0.255531, "positive_rate": 0.666667, "directional_follow_through": 0.666667, "median_excess_return": 0.069995, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.30531, "worst_return": -0.029851, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 2, "median_return": 0.215799, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": 0.104527, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.509956, "worst_return": -0.078358, "sufficient": false } ], "ledger": [ { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2024-12-13", "end": "2024-12-20", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.037037, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2024-12-27", "end": "2025-01-03", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.019455, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-01-10", "end": "2025-01-24", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.016667, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-02-07", "end": "2025-05-16", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.0, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-05-23", "end": "2025-06-20", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.198606, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-06-27", "end": "2025-08-22", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.121457, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-08-29", "end": "2026-01-16", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.014085, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2026-01-23", "end": "2026-01-30", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.050459, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2026-02-06", "end": "2026-02-13", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.004739, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2026-02-27", "end": "2026-03-27", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.137255, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2026-04-03", "end": "2026-05-15", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.041667, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2026-05-22", "end": "2026-05-29", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.004184, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2026-06-05", "end": "2026-07-31", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.016461, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2026-08-07", "end": "2026-08-14", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.004065, "active": true } ], "chart_path": [ { "date": "2023-08-11", "close": 9.7, "volume": 1793000, "typical_volume": 4358150.0, "trend": 9.676, "fair_value": 9.690444, "relative_strength": -4.095265, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 14.175784, "energy": 13.993341, "activity_lines": [ 10.073333, 10.389091, 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"fair_value": 11.696603, "relative_strength": -20.883414, "stage": 3, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 56.651535, "energy": 38.874183, "activity_lines": [ 12.063333, 12.057273, 11.813333, 11.580215 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 11.95, "volume": 953323, "typical_volume": 1459137.6, "trend": 11.32, "fair_value": 11.708141, "relative_strength": -22.077864, "stage": 3, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 44.523198, "energy": 31.973466, "activity_lines": [ 12.02, 12.048182, 11.847619, 11.623978 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 11.95, "volume": 1528400, "typical_volume": 1453555.1, "trend": 11.37, "fair_value": 11.718718, "relative_strength": -20.237241, "stage": 1, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 40.562504, "energy": 26.468402, "activity_lines": [ 11.986667, 12.030909, 11.873095, 11.664624 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 12.3, "volume": 2320084, "typical_volume": 1483108.55, "trend": 11.435, "fair_value": 11.731218, "relative_strength": -19.098012, "stage": 1, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 61.622521, "energy": 34.820291, "activity_lines": [ 12.08, 12.077273, 11.92619, 11.724624 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-14", "close": 12.25, "volume": 1939219, "typical_volume": 1513163.15, "trend": 11.491667, "fair_value": 11.744359, "relative_strength": -21.349041, "stage": 1, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 58.121503, "energy": 36.87818, "activity_lines": [ 12.146667, 12.107273, 11.968333, 11.777204 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }