{ "ticker": { "uuid": "67ff16c5-ee5c-47b8-bfca-577edda0a9df", "symbol": "603826", "name": "Fujian Kuncai Material Technology Co., Ltd.", "exchange": "SHH", "country": "CN", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "000001.SS", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4a", "phase_label": "Stage 4A \u00b7 Breakdown", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 54.297, "architecture_regime": "rotation_down", "architecture_regime_label": "Rotation Down", "architecture_modifier": "Supply rotation", "architecture_gate": "mixed", "architecture_direction": -39.327, "architecture_energy": 68.631, "architecture_maturity": 14.246, "architecture_confidence": 60.592, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The Activity Line structure is rotating downward.", "body": "Fast Activity is weakening relative to Slow Activity and price acceptance is deteriorating. Persistent negative Trend confirmation would establish Downward Expansion." }, "scores": { "balance": 21.23, "rotation_up": 16.54, "upward_expansion": 24.16, "deceleration": 43.48, "rotation_down": 73.5, "downward_expansion": 65.82 }, "activity_lines": [ 15.923188, 17.283249, 20.106511, 20.245938 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.833333 }, "latest_close": 17.4, "trend_reference": 19.39953, "distance_from_trend": -0.103071, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 20.242199, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.14041, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": 2.111706, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.393633, "excess_performance": 0.436837, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.103071, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.100297, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.14041, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.393982, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": true, "value": 0.021117, "read": "Leading" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.496453, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.393633, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.430407, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 57777874, "relative_activity": 0.830276, "balance": 0.430407, "dry_up": 0.658821, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.149333, "annualized_volatility": 0.669019, "from_high_reference": -0.399271, "from_low_reference": 0.443878 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 19.39953, "fair_value_reference": 20.242199, "structural_low": 12.088987, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": -0.018345, "positive_rate": 0.2, "directional_follow_through": 0.8, "median_excess_return": -0.032706, "regime_survival": 0.4, "best_return": 0.103808, "worst_return": -0.0624, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": 0.010962, "positive_rate": 0.666667, "directional_follow_through": 0.333333, "median_excess_return": 0.08961, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.188868, "worst_return": -0.1534, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": -0.038462, "positive_rate": 0.0, "directional_follow_through": 1.0, "median_excess_return": -0.00517, "regime_survival": 0.333333, "best_return": -0.010267, "worst_return": -0.276353, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 2, 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"fair_value": 20.548791, "relative_strength": -1.063187, "stage": 3, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": -18.044526, "energy": 32.504569, "activity_lines": [ 19.405391, 21.38516, 22.456421, 21.168997 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 15.18, "volume": 47229659, "typical_volume": 76146663.25, "trend": 19.138234, "fair_value": 20.472166, "relative_strength": -6.976216, "stage": 4, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Momentum cooling", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -46.578889, "energy": 67.023782, "activity_lines": [ 17.573296, 19.978388, 21.815219, 20.917767 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 14.75, "volume": 45527321, "typical_volume": 72580138.7, "trend": 19.193651, "fair_value": 20.394906, "relative_strength": -10.632361, "stage": 4, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Supply rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -43.660095, "energy": 75.190523, "activity_lines": [ 16.184013, 18.69473, 21.135804, 20.634655 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 15.02, "volume": 32851375, "typical_volume": 69614558.0, "trend": 19.251461, "fair_value": 20.310298, "relative_strength": -9.267933, "stage": 4, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Supply rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -37.359123, "energy": 74.635328, "activity_lines": [ 15.480739, 17.673295, 20.498614, 20.365387 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 17.4, "volume": 57777874, "typical_volume": 69588762.65, "trend": 19.39953, "fair_value": 20.242199, "relative_strength": 2.111706, "stage": 4, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Supply rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -39.327249, "energy": 68.630872, "activity_lines": [ 15.923188, 17.283249, 20.106511, 20.245938 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }