{ "ticker": { "uuid": "6803ba97-d663-4d8f-9ccb-cc8fda6732e5", "symbol": "VDC", "name": "Vanguard Consumer Staples Index Fund ETF Shares", "exchange": "MEX", "country": "MX", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^MXX", "stage": 1, "stage_name": "Basing", "phase": "1b", "phase_label": "Stage 1B \u00b7 Basing", "transition": "stage_1_building", "transition_label": "Base still building", "confidence": 73.967, "architecture_regime": "rotation_up", "architecture_regime_label": "Rotation Up", "architecture_modifier": "Emerging rotation", "architecture_gate": "mixed", "architecture_direction": 3.666, "architecture_energy": 12.579, "architecture_maturity": 16.874, "architecture_confidence": 69.011, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The Activity Line structure is rotating upward.", "body": "Fast Activity is improving relative to Slow Activity and price acceptance is strengthening. This is earlier than full positive Trend confirmation and remains a developing repair." }, "scores": { "balance": 56.02, "rotation_up": 47.31, "upward_expansion": 41.79, "deceleration": 36.63, "rotation_down": 25.33, "downward_expansion": 19.12 }, "activity_lines": [ 4010.169401, 4002.36574, 3980.226003, 3989.284766 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": 0.333333 }, "latest_close": 3958.0, "trend_reference": 3995.914559, "distance_from_trend": -0.009488, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 3859.719644, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.025463, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -2.480074, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": -0.034041, "excess_performance": 0.020626, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.009488, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.011325, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.025463, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.014647, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.024801, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.087775, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.034041, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.982906, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 31, "relative_activity": 0.001319, "balance": 0.982906, "dry_up": 0.009406, "accumulation_observations": 0, "distribution_observations": 0 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.016795, "annualized_volatility": 0.127228, "from_high_reference": -0.045504, "from_low_reference": 0.055637 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 3995.914559, "fair_value_reference": 3859.719644, "structural_low": 3820.962158, "invalidation": "A renewed decline below the structural range low, widening the discount to current Fair Value while Trend falls, weakens the base diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": -0.007647, "positive_rate": 0.0, "directional_follow_through": 0.0, "median_excess_return": -0.00249, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 0.0, "worst_return": -0.123134, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 2, "median_return": -0.056637, "positive_rate": 0.0, "directional_follow_through": 0.0, "median_excess_return": -0.081951, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": -0.033602, "worst_return": -0.079672, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 2, "median_return": -0.069892, "positive_rate": 0.0, "directional_follow_through": 0.0, "median_excess_return": -0.097511, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": -0.034041, "worst_return": -0.105742, "sufficient": false }, { 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"regime": "rotation_up", "modifier": "Structural repair", "gate": "up", "direction": 58.500935, "energy": 50.244124, "activity_lines": [ 4021.940185, 3980.076682, 3976.209366, 3985.659422 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 3932.0, "volume": 96, "typical_volume": 23495.6, "trend": 3980.812085, "fair_value": 3850.609444, "relative_strength": -2.971043, "stage": 1, "regime": "rotation_up", "modifier": "Emerging rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 7.025215, "energy": 21.688664, "activity_lines": [ 3997.332031, 3975.204443, 3970.549359, 3982.830211 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 4115.200195, "volume": 21, "typical_volume": 23494.2, "trend": 3992.342521, "fair_value": 3855.574857, "relative_strength": 1.037992, "stage": 1, "regime": "rotation_up", "modifier": "Value reclamation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 45.267719, "energy": 52.641841, "activity_lines": [ 4033.290755, 4004.37476, 3982.91322, 3991.500412 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 3958.0, "volume": 31, "typical_volume": 23495.75, "trend": 3995.914559, "fair_value": 3859.719644, "relative_strength": -2.480074, "stage": 1, "regime": "rotation_up", "modifier": "Emerging rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 3.665817, "energy": 12.578565, "activity_lines": [ 4010.169401, 4002.36574, 3980.226003, 3989.284766 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }