{ "ticker": { "uuid": "68053ec2-ffa3-4b6b-8d5a-48aeec0baa12", "symbol": "300637", "name": "Yangfan New Materials (Zhejiang) Co., Ltd.", "exchange": "SHZ", "country": "CN", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "399001.SZ", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -65.125, "architecture_energy": 70.436, "architecture_maturity": 54.724, "architecture_confidence": 81.472, "architecture_tenure": "Established", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 4.37, "rotation_up": 11.44, "upward_expansion": 14.97, "deceleration": 39.93, "rotation_down": 73.95, "downward_expansion": 90.64 }, "activity_lines": [ 8.269333, 8.782901, 9.574007, 10.179673 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.833333 }, "latest_close": 8.99, "trend_reference": 11.017822, "distance_from_trend": -0.184049, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 10.29535, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.12679, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -27.206479, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.309524, "excess_performance": -0.316924, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.184049, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.078688, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.12679, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.236137, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.272065, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.015186, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.309524, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.164238, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 40000270, "relative_activity": 1.310231, "balance": 1.164238, "dry_up": 1.289498, "accumulation_observations": 4, "distribution_observations": 3 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.136045, "annualized_volatility": 0.458628, "from_high_reference": -0.505501, "from_low_reference": 0.299133 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 11.017822, "fair_value_reference": 10.29535, "structural_low": 6.92, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 17, "median_return": 0.007215, "positive_rate": 0.588235, "directional_follow_through": 0.411765, "median_excess_return": 0.00524, "regime_survival": 0.647059, "best_return": 0.270725, "worst_return": -0.241011, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": 0.180516, "positive_rate": 0.571429, "directional_follow_through": 0.428571, "median_excess_return": 0.101593, "regime_survival": 0.428571, "best_return": 0.450065, "worst_return": -0.140394, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": 0.058366, "positive_rate": 0.8, "directional_follow_through": 0.2, "median_excess_return": 0.103236, "regime_survival": 0.2, "best_return": 0.400455, "worst_return": -0.162065, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full 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-78.751291, "energy": 52.63099, "activity_lines": [ 9.76, 10.028307, 10.549905, 11.012315 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 7.81, "volume": 28883970, "typical_volume": 29518778.95, "trend": 11.380155, "fair_value": 10.277722, "relative_strength": -35.896824, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -85.477172, "energy": 76.508986, "activity_lines": [ 9.053333, 9.573239, 10.242788, 10.772886 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 7.51, "volume": 27310360, "typical_volume": 28520915.05, "trend": 11.238822, "fair_value": 10.279517, "relative_strength": -37.998894, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -82.198359, "energy": 86.770308, "activity_lines": [ 8.389333, 9.125193, 9.934384, 10.523198 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 8.03, "volume": 61274648, "typical_volume": 30022366.3, "trend": 11.105822, "fair_value": 10.284197, "relative_strength": -32.134145, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -67.94329, "energy": 83.28278, "activity_lines": [ 8.084, 8.83654, 9.698457, 10.316178 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 8.99, "volume": 40000270, "typical_volume": 30529165.3, "trend": 11.017822, "fair_value": 10.29535, "relative_strength": -27.206479, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -65.124615, "energy": 70.435714, "activity_lines": [ 8.269333, 8.782901, 9.574007, 10.179673 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }