{ "ticker": { "uuid": "68086c97-9943-4b3d-98da-52a18881467f", "symbol": "GMED", "name": "Globus Medical", "exchange": "NYSE", "country": "US", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "SPY", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4a", "phase_label": "Stage 4A \u00b7 Breakdown", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -51.54, "architecture_energy": 30.369, "architecture_maturity": 27.147, "architecture_confidence": 93.061, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 36.86, "rotation_up": 21.64, "upward_expansion": 2.97, "deceleration": 50.01, "rotation_down": 47.3, "downward_expansion": 76.3 }, "activity_lines": [ 79.232667, 79.568364, 81.136619, 82.905204 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Stable", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.666667 }, "latest_close": 82.35, "trend_reference": 85.344667, "distance_from_trend": -0.035089, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 69.410385, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.186422, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -8.04474, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.06218, "excess_performance": -0.187805, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.035089, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.030927, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.186422, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.032662, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.080447, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.018363, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.06218, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.626035, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 9012668, "relative_activity": 1.171994, "balance": 0.626035, "dry_up": 1.065621, "accumulation_observations": 3, "distribution_observations": 6 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.081948, "annualized_volatility": 0.387288, "from_high_reference": -0.18785, "from_low_reference": 0.520776 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 85.344667, "fair_value_reference": 69.410385, "structural_low": 74.385, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 25, "median_return": 0.026483, "positive_rate": 0.56, "directional_follow_through": 0.44, "median_excess_return": 0.008754, "regime_survival": 0.8, "best_return": 0.183351, "worst_return": -0.19011, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 10, "median_return": 0.030457, "positive_rate": 0.7, "directional_follow_through": 0.3, "median_excess_return": -0.039354, "regime_survival": 0.7, "best_return": 0.146314, "worst_return": -0.251648, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": -0.123411, "positive_rate": 0.4, "directional_follow_through": 0.6, "median_excess_return": -0.152063, "regime_survival": 0.4, "best_return": 0.21848, "worst_return": -0.144368, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 3, 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80.126, 82.434095, 84.232989 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 76.49, "volume": 6630967, "typical_volume": 7473372.1, "trend": 86.032333, "fair_value": 69.106603, "relative_strength": -10.123124, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -60.692249, "energy": 48.254801, "activity_lines": [ 78.084667, 79.407273, 81.699381, 83.59172 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 78.79, "volume": 5773600, "typical_volume": 7498681.95, "trend": 85.748667, "fair_value": 69.248141, "relative_strength": -8.727193, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -53.712946, "energy": 45.060697, "activity_lines": [ 77.816667, 79.109455, 81.234238, 83.124473 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 82.35, "volume": 9012668, "typical_volume": 7690029.25, "trend": 85.344667, "fair_value": 69.410385, "relative_strength": -8.04474, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -51.540254, "energy": 30.369093, "activity_lines": [ 79.232667, 79.568364, 81.136619, 82.905204 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }