{ "ticker": { "uuid": "680dcec0-7f64-4ce0-8d60-3de7dad8ee8b", "symbol": "603116", "name": "Zhejiang Red Dragonfly Footwear Co., Ltd.", "exchange": "SHH", "country": "CN", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "000001.SS", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4a", "phase_label": "Stage 4A \u00b7 Breakdown", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 79.201, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Early contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -59.777, "architecture_energy": 52.745, "architecture_maturity": 7.087, "architecture_confidence": 70.568, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 25.61, "rotation_up": 10.07, "upward_expansion": 8.89, "deceleration": 42.11, "rotation_down": 69.96, "downward_expansion": 84.56 }, "activity_lines": [ 5.572667, 5.756866, 6.1428, 6.155865 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.833333 }, "latest_close": 6.13, "trend_reference": 6.214464, "distance_from_trend": -0.013592, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 5.528014, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.108897, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": 0.788476, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.064122, "excess_performance": -0.020918, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.013592, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.002191, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.108897, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.241531, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": true, "value": 0.007885, "read": "Leading" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.105981, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.064122, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.703912, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 53982908, "relative_activity": 1.096727, "balance": 0.703912, "dry_up": 0.858472, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.123527, "annualized_volatility": 0.505767, "from_high_reference": -0.256962, "from_low_reference": 0.287815 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 6.214464, "fair_value_reference": 5.528014, "structural_low": 4.76, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 16, "median_return": 0.028586, "positive_rate": 0.6875, "directional_follow_through": 0.3125, "median_excess_return": 0.027539, "regime_survival": 0.6875, "best_return": 0.381371, "worst_return": -0.131931, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": 0.030829, "positive_rate": 0.714286, "directional_follow_through": 0.285714, "median_excess_return": 0.012923, "regime_survival": 0.428571, "best_return": 0.532374, "worst_return": -0.134666, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": 0.066516, "positive_rate": 0.6, "directional_follow_through": 0.4, "median_excess_return": 0.078786, "regime_survival": 0.2, "best_return": 0.366501, "worst_return": -0.111755, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", 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5.95, "volume": 38964260, "typical_volume": 46256993.85, "trend": 6.269131, "fair_value": 5.529223, "relative_strength": -5.626589, "stage": 1, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -9.866872, "energy": 23.566577, "activity_lines": [ 6.098, 6.490657, 6.428255, 6.358694 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 5.43, "volume": 39236540, "typical_volume": 47284501.85, "trend": 6.262131, "fair_value": 5.528805, "relative_strength": -8.21968, "stage": 1, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -32.483216, "energy": 34.953994, "activity_lines": [ 5.823333, 6.240553, 6.347903, 6.304557 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 4.95, "volume": 42596425, "typical_volume": 47566915.1, "trend": 6.228131, "fair_value": 5.525484, "relative_strength": -16.874352, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -67.413135, "energy": 64.616431, "activity_lines": [ 5.486, 5.938074, 6.226123, 6.219903 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 5.32, "volume": 33206420, "typical_volume": 47873182.1, "trend": 6.214464, "fair_value": 5.524418, "relative_strength": -10.477158, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -65.496117, "energy": 66.778531, "activity_lines": [ 5.378, 5.753008, 6.14439, 6.161314 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 6.13, "volume": 53982908, "typical_volume": 49221819.4, "trend": 6.214464, "fair_value": 5.528014, "relative_strength": 0.788476, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -59.776669, "energy": 52.745027, "activity_lines": [ 5.572667, 5.756866, 6.1428, 6.155865 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }