{ "ticker": { "uuid": "68109851-2a7d-4334-ba3d-b41246190c72", "symbol": "VERX", "name": "Vanguard FTSE Developed Europe ex UK UCITS ETF Distributing", "exchange": "GER", "country": "DE", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^GDAXI", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2b", "phase_label": "Stage 2B \u00b7 Advancing", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "upward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Upward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established expansion", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 81.905, "architecture_energy": 68.361, "architecture_maturity": 43.09, "architecture_confidence": 86.829, "architecture_tenure": "Established", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding upward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained positive alignment with constructive price acceptance. Directional energy remains positive; cooling within this regime can indicate that it is maturing." }, "scores": { "balance": 12.08, "rotation_up": 57.72, "upward_expansion": 83.15, "deceleration": 58.16, "rotation_down": 25.26, "downward_expansion": 12.15 }, "activity_lines": [ 50.449, 50.172967, 49.235531, 48.401386 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": 0.5 }, "latest_close": 51.349998, "trend_reference": 47.566696, "distance_from_trend": 0.079537, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 40.159021, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.278667, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": 3.863074, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.096469, "excess_performance": 0.031829, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.079537, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.041045, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.278667, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.066442, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": true, "value": 0.038631, "read": "Leading" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.024689, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.096469, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.890899, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 31916, "relative_activity": 0.563699, "balance": 0.890899, "dry_up": 0.571267, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.019282, "annualized_volatility": 0.151758, "from_high_reference": -0.003106, "from_low_reference": 0.251606 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 47.566696, "fair_value_reference": 40.159021, "structural_low": 42.08826, "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 38, "median_return": 0.011684, "positive_rate": 0.578947, "directional_follow_through": 0.578947, "median_excess_return": 0.002752, "regime_survival": 0.789474, "best_return": 0.07664, "worst_return": -0.060251, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 13, "median_return": 0.031383, "positive_rate": 0.769231, "directional_follow_through": 0.769231, "median_excess_return": 0.006685, "regime_survival": 0.615385, "best_return": 0.090963, "worst_return": -0.060697, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 9, "median_return": 0.064193, "positive_rate": 0.777778, "directional_follow_through": 0.777778, "median_excess_return": 0.013985, "regime_survival": 0.666667, "best_return": 0.158723, "worst_return": -0.148278, "sufficient": true }, { 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64.866293, "energy": 78.181177, "activity_lines": [ 49.941667, 49.519781, 48.394703, 47.770249 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 49.904999, "volume": 19216, "typical_volume": 72570.45, "trend": 47.241252, "fair_value": 39.931148, "relative_strength": 6.381637, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 63.127216, "energy": 68.315916, "activity_lines": [ 49.943666, 49.680459, 48.640512, 47.953275 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 50.240002, "volume": 19908, "typical_volume": 63863.9, "trend": 47.403034, "fair_value": 40.041689, "relative_strength": 4.612211, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 66.051612, "energy": 56.169496, "activity_lines": [ 50.037334, 49.844345, 48.897852, 48.146743 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 51.349998, "volume": 31916, "typical_volume": 56618.85, "trend": 47.566696, "fair_value": 40.159021, "relative_strength": 3.863074, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 81.904981, "energy": 68.360788, "activity_lines": [ 50.449, 50.172967, 49.235531, 48.401386 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }