{ "ticker": { "uuid": "6811bea6-879f-4bad-a677-4a4d028f2a5d", "symbol": "AE", "name": "All Energy & Utilities Public Company Limited", "exchange": "SET", "country": "TH", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^SET.BK", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -37.148, "architecture_energy": 24.602, "architecture_maturity": 100.0, "architecture_confidence": 72.355, "architecture_tenure": "Extended", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 39.8, "rotation_up": 27.0, "upward_expansion": 19.92, "deceleration": 46.42, "rotation_down": 24.63, "downward_expansion": 53.92 }, "activity_lines": [ 0.1, 0.097091, 0.103381, 0.116538 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": 0.0 }, "latest_close": 0.1, "trend_reference": 0.134333, "distance_from_trend": -0.255583, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 0.418013, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.760773, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -49.77885, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.444444, "excess_performance": -0.636769, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.255583, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.1875, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.760773, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.045667, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.497789, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.078758, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.444444, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.498618, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 2036200, "relative_activity": 0.403241, "balance": 0.498618, "dry_up": 0.533608, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.215385, "annualized_volatility": 1.037198, "from_high_reference": -0.615385, "from_low_reference": 0.25 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 0.134333, "fair_value_reference": 0.418013, "structural_low": 0.08, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 48, "median_return": -0.0375, "positive_rate": 0.291667, "directional_follow_through": 0.5625, "median_excess_return": -0.032215, "regime_survival": 0.833333, "best_return": 0.6, "worst_return": -0.411765, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 17, "median_return": -0.175, "positive_rate": 0.176471, "directional_follow_through": 0.705882, "median_excess_return": -0.150127, "regime_survival": 0.705882, "best_return": 0.309091, "worst_return": -0.393939, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 9, "median_return": -0.232394, "positive_rate": 0.0, "directional_follow_through": 1.0, "median_excess_return": -0.258297, "regime_survival": 0.777778, "best_return": -0.054545, "worst_return": -0.47619, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", 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0.094909, 0.115333, 0.130366 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-10", "close": 0.1, "volume": 3854900, "typical_volume": 9566677.5, "trend": 0.145667, "fair_value": 0.438397, "relative_strength": -53.868234, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -60.18331, "energy": 52.921101, "activity_lines": [ 0.092667, 0.094364, 0.112143, 0.127247 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 0.1, "volume": 3085700, "typical_volume": 9445885.0, "trend": 0.143, "fair_value": 0.43391, "relative_strength": -53.436807, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -48.230271, "energy": 42.469271, "activity_lines": [ 0.095333, 0.094545, 0.109429, 0.124301 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 0.1, "volume": 3310800, "typical_volume": 9069487.5, "trend": 0.140333, "fair_value": 0.429423, "relative_strength": -52.737028, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -43.197035, "energy": 33.616102, "activity_lines": [ 0.097333, 0.095455, 0.10719, 0.121527 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 0.1, "volume": 2345300, "typical_volume": 8652320.0, "trend": 0.137, "fair_value": 0.423654, "relative_strength": -51.216143, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -40.039596, "energy": 27.342412, "activity_lines": [ 0.099333, 0.096182, 0.105143, 0.118925 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 0.1, "volume": 2036200, "typical_volume": 5049587.5, "trend": 0.134333, "fair_value": 0.418013, "relative_strength": -49.77885, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -37.14772, "energy": 24.602258, "activity_lines": [ 0.1, 0.097091, 0.103381, 0.116538 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }