{ "ticker": { "uuid": "6813d633-16f3-4be7-84a3-ac6c17bd8903", "symbol": "TGM", "name": "Theta Gold Mines Limited", "exchange": "ASX", "country": "AU", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^AXJO", "stage": 3, "stage_name": "Distribution", "phase": "3c", "phase_label": "Stage 3C \u00b7 Breakdown watch", "transition": "stage_3_to_4_watch", "transition_label": "Stage 3 \u2192 4 watch", "confidence": 83.987, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Early contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -62.038, "architecture_energy": 68.532, "architecture_maturity": 13.331, "architecture_confidence": 88.437, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 27.69, "rotation_up": 11.79, "upward_expansion": 15.49, "deceleration": 38.05, "rotation_down": 68.34, "downward_expansion": 88.82 }, "activity_lines": [ 0.185, 0.189864, 0.197988, 0.202909 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.666667 }, "latest_close": 0.19, "trend_reference": 0.209167, "distance_from_trend": -0.091633, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 0.165481, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.14817, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -10.394461, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.116279, "excess_performance": -0.179985, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.091633, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.035906, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.14817, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.229271, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.103945, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.244218, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.116279, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.704376, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 500221, "relative_activity": 0.45882, "balance": 0.704376, "dry_up": 0.716456, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 3 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.071862, "annualized_volatility": 0.357429, "from_high_reference": -0.321429, "from_low_reference": 0.266667 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 0.209167, "fair_value_reference": 0.165481, "structural_low": 0.175, "invalidation": "A decisive breakout above range resistance with renewed RS leadership invalidates the distribution reading; a range-low break confirms deterioration." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 24, "median_return": -0.062261, "positive_rate": 0.333333, "directional_follow_through": 0.666667, "median_excess_return": -0.06403, "regime_survival": 0.875, "best_return": 0.508929, "worst_return": -0.337349, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 9, "median_return": -0.129032, "positive_rate": 0.333333, "directional_follow_through": 0.666667, "median_excess_return": -0.132346, "regime_survival": 0.666667, "best_return": 0.851852, "worst_return": -0.592593, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": 0.218182, "positive_rate": 0.6, "directional_follow_through": 0.4, "median_excess_return": 0.153552, "regime_survival": 0.4, "best_return": 1.410714, "worst_return": -0.645161, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": 0.254545, "positive_rate": 0.666667, "directional_follow_through": 0.333333, "median_excess_return": 0.199993, "regime_survival": 0.333333, "best_return": 0.322581, "worst_return": -0.765957, "sufficient": false } ], "ledger": [ { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2024-10-11", "end": "2024-10-18", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.057143, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2024-10-25", "end": "2024-12-06", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.027778, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2024-12-13", "end": "2024-12-20", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.027778, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2024-12-27", "end": "2025-01-31", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.027778, "active": false 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"2025-12-12", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.085714, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-12-19", "end": "2026-01-23", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.352941, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2026-01-30", "end": "2026-04-03", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.0, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2026-04-10", "end": "2026-07-17", "tenure": "Established", "return": -0.121951, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2026-07-24", "end": "2026-08-07", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.055556, "active": true } ], "chart_path": [ { "date": "2023-08-18", "close": 0.125, "volume": 1160960, "typical_volume": 825687.9, "trend": 0.078983, "fair_value": 0.161532, "relative_strength": 65.172377, "stage": 1, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": 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"Upper balance after advance", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -41.054654, "energy": 52.974955, "activity_lines": [ 0.196333, 0.203591, 0.206774, 0.209543 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 0.18, "volume": 989977, "typical_volume": 1483499.9, "trend": 0.2095, "fair_value": 0.164423, "relative_strength": -10.416054, "stage": 3, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "down", "direction": -74.008236, "energy": 74.818352, "activity_lines": [ 0.189167, 0.198636, 0.203821, 0.207661 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 0.18, "volume": 617773, "typical_volume": 1372266.5, "trend": 0.2095, "fair_value": 0.16484, "relative_strength": -10.104324, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -69.773498, "energy": 78.553874, "activity_lines": [ 0.184, 0.194318, 0.201179, 0.205758 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 0.185, "volume": 1016442, "typical_volume": 1225698.35, "trend": 0.209667, "fair_value": 0.16516, "relative_strength": -9.830526, "stage": 3, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -64.89429, "energy": 76.698165, "activity_lines": [ 0.182833, 0.191455, 0.199238, 0.204177 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 0.19, "volume": 500221, "typical_volume": 1090232.7, "trend": 0.209167, "fair_value": 0.165481, "relative_strength": -10.394461, "stage": 3, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -62.038132, "energy": 68.5316, "activity_lines": [ 0.185, 0.189864, 0.197988, 0.202909 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }